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icon for L'Iran facture des frais d'Ormuz de... ?
Géopolitique·Iran

L'Iran facture des frais d'Ormuz de... ?

icon for L'Iran facture des frais d'Ormuz de... ?
Géopolitique·Iran

L'Iran facture des frais d'Ormuz de... ?

$3,063,004 Vol.

30 sept. 2026
Polymarket

$3,063,004 Vol.

Polymarket

30 septembre

$186,941 Vol.

2%

31 octobre

$539,265 Vol.

11%

31 décembre

$262,167 Vol.

25%

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.**Iran has advanced plans to collect service or insurance fees from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, framing them as compensation for navigation, safety, environmental, and related maritime services rather than prohibited transit tolls.** Following the 2026 US-Iran conflict and interim agreements that included a 60-day toll-free window after a June memorandum, Iranian officials established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and advanced parliamentary measures to implement charges scaled to vessel size and cargo, reportedly averaging $1.5–2 million per transit with payments accepted in cash, cryptocurrency, or barter. Recent September 2026 statements from Iranian lawmakers confirm the system has moved into operational collection under Supreme National Security Council oversight. The United States and several Gulf states reject any mandatory charges on the international waterway, citing UNCLOS rules against tolls for transit passage and warning of precedent-setting risks, while Iran emphasizes sovereignty and revenue needs amid post-conflict negotiations with Oman and regional actors. These tensions, alongside fluctuating shipping risks and insurance costs, shape trader assessments of timelines and conditions for sustained fee implementation.

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”

A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.

A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).

Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria:
1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented.
2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun.

Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.

The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,063,004
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 10:31 AM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.**Iran has advanced plans to collect service or insurance fees from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, framing them as compensation for navigation, safety, environmental, and related maritime services rather than prohibited transit tolls.** Following the 2026 US-Iran conflict and interim agreements that included a 60-day toll-free window after a June memorandum, Iranian officials established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and advanced parliamentary measures to implement charges scaled to vessel size and cargo, reportedly averaging $1.5–2 million per transit with payments accepted in cash, cryptocurrency, or barter. Recent September 2026 statements from Iranian lawmakers confirm the system has moved into operational collection under Supreme National Security Council oversight. The United States and several Gulf states reject any mandatory charges on the international waterway, citing UNCLOS rules against tolls for transit passage and warning of precedent-setting risks, while Iran emphasizes sovereignty and revenue needs amid post-conflict negotiations with Oman and regional actors. These tensions, alongside fluctuating shipping risks and insurance costs, shape trader assessments of timelines and conditions for sustained fee implementation.

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”

A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.

A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).

Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria:
1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented.
2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun.

Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.

The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,063,004
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 10:31 AM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...

Connexes

icon for Les États-Unis facturent-ils des frais pour le détroit d'Hormuz d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

Les États-Unis facturent-ils des frais pour le détroit d'Hormuz d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

6%
Oui
icon for Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

33%
icon for Les États-Unis enverront-ils des navires de guerre dans le détroit d'Ormuz d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

Les États-Unis enverront-ils des navires de guerre dans le détroit d'Ormuz d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

26%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« L'Iran facture des frais d'Ormuz de... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre » à 25%, suivi de « 31 octobre » à 11%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 25¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 25% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « L'Iran facture des frais d'Ormuz de... ? » a généré $3.1 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jun 25, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « L'Iran facture des frais d'Ormuz de... ? », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « L'Iran facture des frais d'Ormuz de... ? » est « 31 décembre » à 25%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 25% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 octobre » à 11%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « L'Iran facture des frais d'Ormuz de... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.