Ongoing military tensions with Iran, stemming from joint U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation, continue to shape trader views on the potential for a major Israeli airspace closure by late May. Israeli authorities partially reopened Ben Gurion Airport in March with strict capacity limits and security protocols, while most foreign carriers maintain caution. Recent announcements from European airlines, including Lufthansa’s planned resumption of flights in June, have eased immediate risk perceptions and contributed to moderating probabilities. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, threat assessments, and any escalation indicators within the resolution window, as these factors could prompt renewed full restrictions or allow further normalization of operations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$880,767 Vol.
31 mai 2026
May 31
31%
30 juin
50%
$880,767 Vol.
May 31
$377,502 Vol.
31%
30 juin
$8,017 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military tensions with Iran, stemming from joint U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation, continue to shape trader views on the potential for a major Israeli airspace closure by late May. Israeli authorities partially reopened Ben Gurion Airport in March with strict capacity limits and security protocols, while most foreign carriers maintain caution. Recent announcements from European airlines, including Lufthansa’s planned resumption of flights in June, have eased immediate risk perceptions and contributed to moderating probabilities. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, threat assessments, and any escalation indicators within the resolution window, as these factors could prompt renewed full restrictions or allow further normalization of operations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$880,767Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military tensions with Iran, stemming from joint U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation, continue to shape trader views on the potential for a major Israeli airspace closure by late May. Israeli authorities partially reopened Ben Gurion Airport in March with strict capacity limits and security protocols, while most foreign carriers maintain caution. Recent announcements from European airlines, including Lufthansa’s planned resumption of flights in June, have eased immediate risk perceptions and contributed to moderating probabilities. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, threat assessments, and any escalation indicators within the resolution window, as these factors could prompt renewed full restrictions or allow further normalization of operations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$880,767Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military tensions with Iran, stemming from joint U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation, continue to shape trader views on the potential for a major Israeli airspace closure by late May. Israeli authorities partially reopened Ben Gurion Airport in March with strict capacity limits and security protocols, while most foreign carriers maintain caution. Recent announcements from European airlines, including Lufthansa’s planned resumption of flights in June, have eased immediate risk perceptions and contributed to moderating probabilities. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, threat assessments, and any escalation indicators within the resolution window, as these factors could prompt renewed full restrictions or allow further normalization of operations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes