**Israeli airspace remains open amid ongoing regional volatility following the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026.** Renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and intermittent threats from Iranian proxies, including a missile interception from Yemen in June, have prompted temporary or partial closures earlier in the year but not sustained full shutdowns since the phased reopenings in spring. EASA continues to flag risks in the Tel Aviv FIR, and many international carriers have not resumed regular service to Ben Gurion. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a major civilian airspace closure by late August, reflecting the current pattern of managed operations and rapid reopenings rather than prolonged suspension, absent fresh large-scale escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$27,088,278 Vol.
15 juil. 2026
31 août
3%
$27,088,278 Vol.
31 août
$1,056,397 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Israeli airspace remains open amid ongoing regional volatility following the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026.** Renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and intermittent threats from Iranian proxies, including a missile interception from Yemen in June, have prompted temporary or partial closures earlier in the year but not sustained full shutdowns since the phased reopenings in spring. EASA continues to flag risks in the Tel Aviv FIR, and many international carriers have not resumed regular service to Ben Gurion. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a major civilian airspace closure by late August, reflecting the current pattern of managed operations and rapid reopenings rather than prolonged suspension, absent fresh large-scale escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$27,088,278Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Israeli airspace remains open amid ongoing regional volatility following the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026.** Renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and intermittent threats from Iranian proxies, including a missile interception from Yemen in June, have prompted temporary or partial closures earlier in the year but not sustained full shutdowns since the phased reopenings in spring. EASA continues to flag risks in the Tel Aviv FIR, and many international carriers have not resumed regular service to Ben Gurion. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a major civilian airspace closure by late August, reflecting the current pattern of managed operations and rapid reopenings rather than prolonged suspension, absent fresh large-scale escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,088,278Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Israeli airspace remains open amid ongoing regional volatility following the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire in July 2026.** Renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and intermittent threats from Iranian proxies, including a missile interception from Yemen in June, have prompted temporary or partial closures earlier in the year but not sustained full shutdowns since the phased reopenings in spring. EASA continues to flag risks in the Tel Aviv FIR, and many international carriers have not resumed regular service to Ben Gurion. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a major civilian airspace closure by late August, reflecting the current pattern of managed operations and rapid reopenings rather than prolonged suspension, absent fresh large-scale escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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