Ongoing Houthi threats and targeted attacks on Saudi-linked assets have kept Red Sea transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait well below pre-2023 norms of roughly 75 vessels per day, with recent Kpler-tracked daily commodity ship counts swinging between highs near 39 and lows in the single digits. This volatility underpins the tight market-implied odds between sub-180 and 180-199 weekly totals, as traders weigh sustained rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope—driven by elevated war-risk premiums and insurance constraints—against any short-term resumption signals. Key swing factors include the durability of the announced Saudi shipping blockade, fresh maritime incidents, and shifts in carrier routing decisions that directly influence aggregate weekly volume.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de navires transitent par la semaine du 10 août dans le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb ?
Combien de navires transitent par la semaine du 10 août dans le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb ?
<180 40%
180-199 35%
200-219 11%
220+ 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 août 2026
<180
40%
180-199
35%
200-219
11%
220+
9%
<180 40%
180-199 35%
200-219 11%
220+ 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 août 2026
<180
$90 Vol.
40%
180-199
$360 Vol.
35%
200-219
$70 Vol.
11%
220+
$70 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi threats and targeted attacks on Saudi-linked assets have kept Red Sea transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait well below pre-2023 norms of roughly 75 vessels per day, with recent Kpler-tracked daily commodity ship counts swinging between highs near 39 and lows in the single digits. This volatility underpins the tight market-implied odds between sub-180 and 180-199 weekly totals, as traders weigh sustained rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope—driven by elevated war-risk premiums and insurance constraints—against any short-term resumption signals. Key swing factors include the durability of the announced Saudi shipping blockade, fresh maritime incidents, and shifts in carrier routing decisions that directly influence aggregate weekly volume.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Marché ouvert : Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$590Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi threats and targeted attacks on Saudi-linked assets have kept Red Sea transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait well below pre-2023 norms of roughly 75 vessels per day, with recent Kpler-tracked daily commodity ship counts swinging between highs near 39 and lows in the single digits. This volatility underpins the tight market-implied odds between sub-180 and 180-199 weekly totals, as traders weigh sustained rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope—driven by elevated war-risk premiums and insurance constraints—against any short-term resumption signals. Key swing factors include the durability of the announced Saudi shipping blockade, fresh maritime incidents, and shifts in carrier routing decisions that directly influence aggregate weekly volume.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$590Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Houthi threats and targeted attacks on Saudi-linked assets have kept Red Sea transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait well below pre-2023 norms of roughly 75 vessels per day, with recent Kpler-tracked daily commodity ship counts swinging between highs near 39 and lows in the single digits. This volatility underpins the tight market-implied odds between sub-180 and 180-199 weekly totals, as traders weigh sustained rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope—driven by elevated war-risk premiums and insurance constraints—against any short-term resumption signals. Key swing factors include the durability of the announced Saudi shipping blockade, fresh maritime incidents, and shifts in carrier routing decisions that directly influence aggregate weekly volume.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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