Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea facilities have driven volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily volumes fluctuating between 29 and 41 vessels in late July amid heightened insurance premiums and selective rerouting by carriers. This uncertainty produces tightly clustered market-implied odds near 47–49.5% across the 180–220+ bins, reflecting trader consensus that weekly totals could settle in a narrow range depending on whether attacks intensify or ease before August 3. Key swing factors include daily average trends, freight rate spikes, and any shifts in major liners’ routing policies, all priced in by capital-at-risk participants assessing near-term geopolitical risk versus historical throughput baselines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de navires transitent par la semaine du 3 août dans le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb ?
Combien de navires transitent par la semaine du 3 août dans le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb ?
<180 51%
220+ 50%
200-219 48%
180-199 47%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
9 août 2026
<180
51%
180-199
47%
200-219
48%
220+
50%
<180 51%
220+ 50%
200-219 48%
180-199 47%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
9 août 2026
<180
$0 Vol.
51%
180-199
$0 Vol.
47%
200-219
$0 Vol.
48%
220+
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea facilities have driven volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily volumes fluctuating between 29 and 41 vessels in late July amid heightened insurance premiums and selective rerouting by carriers. This uncertainty produces tightly clustered market-implied odds near 47–49.5% across the 180–220+ bins, reflecting trader consensus that weekly totals could settle in a narrow range depending on whether attacks intensify or ease before August 3. Key swing factors include daily average trends, freight rate spikes, and any shifts in major liners’ routing policies, all priced in by capital-at-risk participants assessing near-term geopolitical risk versus historical throughput baselines.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
9 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea facilities have driven volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily volumes fluctuating between 29 and 41 vessels in late July amid heightened insurance premiums and selective rerouting by carriers. This uncertainty produces tightly clustered market-implied odds near 47–49.5% across the 180–220+ bins, reflecting trader consensus that weekly totals could settle in a narrow range depending on whether attacks intensify or ease before August 3. Key swing factors include daily average trends, freight rate spikes, and any shifts in major liners’ routing policies, all priced in by capital-at-risk participants assessing near-term geopolitical risk versus historical throughput baselines.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$0Date de fin
9 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea facilities have driven volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily volumes fluctuating between 29 and 41 vessels in late July amid heightened insurance premiums and selective rerouting by carriers. This uncertainty produces tightly clustered market-implied odds near 47–49.5% across the 180–220+ bins, reflecting trader consensus that weekly totals could settle in a narrow range depending on whether attacks intensify or ease before August 3. Key swing factors include daily average trends, freight rate spikes, and any shifts in major liners’ routing policies, all priced in by capital-at-risk participants assessing near-term geopolitical risk versus historical throughput baselines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Moins de 200 navires traverseront-ils le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb entre le 27 juillet et le 2 août ?
69%
Oui
Y aura-t-il entre 30 et 34 transits quotidiens moyens du détroit de Bab el-Mandeb le 31 août ?
37%
Oui
Y aura-t-il entre 31 et 33 transits quotidiens moyens du détroit de Bab el-Mandeb le 31 juillet ?
24%
Oui
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