Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval confrontations and IRGC enforcement actions have compressed weekly Strait of Hormuz transits to crisis lows, with preliminary July 20–26 data showing just 39 passages versus pre-2026 norms of 400-plus. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 50–74 or fewer vessels for the August 3 week because intermittent strikes, routing restrictions, and blockade enforcement continue to deter commercial traffic while any credible ceasefire signals could lift volumes toward the 50–74 band. Market pricing embeds a narrow probability distribution reflecting uncertainty over near-term escalation versus managed de-escalation, with tanker operators weighing insurance premia, detour costs around the Cape, and potential U.S. escort commitments against persistent IRGC warnings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de navires transitent la semaine du 3 août dans le détroit d'Ormuz ?
Combien de navires transitent la semaine du 3 août dans le détroit d'Ormuz ?
50-74 50%
<25 47%
25-49 45%
75-99 45%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
9 août 2026
<25
47%
25-49
45%
50-74
50%
75-99
45%
100+
45%
50-74 50%
<25 47%
25-49 45%
75-99 45%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
9 août 2026
<25
$0 Vol.
47%
25-49
$0 Vol.
45%
50-74
$0 Vol.
50%
75-99
$0 Vol.
45%
100+
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval confrontations and IRGC enforcement actions have compressed weekly Strait of Hormuz transits to crisis lows, with preliminary July 20–26 data showing just 39 passages versus pre-2026 norms of 400-plus. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 50–74 or fewer vessels for the August 3 week because intermittent strikes, routing restrictions, and blockade enforcement continue to deter commercial traffic while any credible ceasefire signals could lift volumes toward the 50–74 band. Market pricing embeds a narrow probability distribution reflecting uncertainty over near-term escalation versus managed de-escalation, with tanker operators weighing insurance premia, detour costs around the Cape, and potential U.S. escort commitments against persistent IRGC warnings.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
9 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval confrontations and IRGC enforcement actions have compressed weekly Strait of Hormuz transits to crisis lows, with preliminary July 20–26 data showing just 39 passages versus pre-2026 norms of 400-plus. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 50–74 or fewer vessels for the August 3 week because intermittent strikes, routing restrictions, and blockade enforcement continue to deter commercial traffic while any credible ceasefire signals could lift volumes toward the 50–74 band. Market pricing embeds a narrow probability distribution reflecting uncertainty over near-term escalation versus managed de-escalation, with tanker operators weighing insurance premia, detour costs around the Cape, and potential U.S. escort commitments against persistent IRGC warnings.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$0Date de fin
9 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval confrontations and IRGC enforcement actions have compressed weekly Strait of Hormuz transits to crisis lows, with preliminary July 20–26 data showing just 39 passages versus pre-2026 norms of 400-plus. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 50–74 or fewer vessels for the August 3 week because intermittent strikes, routing restrictions, and blockade enforcement continue to deter commercial traffic while any credible ceasefire signals could lift volumes toward the 50–74 band. Market pricing embeds a narrow probability distribution reflecting uncertainty over near-term escalation versus managed de-escalation, with tanker operators weighing insurance premia, detour costs around the Cape, and potential U.S. escort commitments against persistent IRGC warnings.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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