Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about diplomatic breakthroughs in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with low probabilities assigned to US House members or senators entering Iran amid a fragile ceasefire extended by President Trump but strained by mutual rejections of peace proposals. Recent escalations include the IRGC's five-day drill near Tehran simulating a US ground invasion, featuring drone strikes and sniper tactics, concluded just days ago, alongside reports of Saudi covert airstrikes inside Iran during the 40-day war phase. Pakistani mediation via Army Chief Asim Munir's April visit yielded no US diplomatic entries, while Trump signals potential preemptive operations if Tehran refuses to dismantle uranium enrichment at Kharg Island. Upcoming talks risk collapse without concessions, underscoring barriers to any official US entry by June 30.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$387,411 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Tout membre de la Chambre des représentants américaine
5%
Tout sénateur américain
3%
Jared Kushner
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
Pete Hegseth
2%
JD Vance
1%
Benjamin Netanyahu
1%
Donald Trump
<1%
$387,411 Vol.
Tout membre de la Chambre des représentants américaine
$86,747 Vol.
5%
Tout sénateur américain
$29,990 Vol.
3%
Jared Kushner
$15,604 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$21,470 Vol.
2%
Pete Hegseth
$92,649 Vol.
2%
JD Vance
$30,931 Vol.
1%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$42,282 Vol.
1%
Donald Trump
$67,738 Vol.
<1%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about diplomatic breakthroughs in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with low probabilities assigned to US House members or senators entering Iran amid a fragile ceasefire extended by President Trump but strained by mutual rejections of peace proposals. Recent escalations include the IRGC's five-day drill near Tehran simulating a US ground invasion, featuring drone strikes and sniper tactics, concluded just days ago, alongside reports of Saudi covert airstrikes inside Iran during the 40-day war phase. Pakistani mediation via Army Chief Asim Munir's April visit yielded no US diplomatic entries, while Trump signals potential preemptive operations if Tehran refuses to dismantle uranium enrichment at Kharg Island. Upcoming talks risk collapse without concessions, underscoring barriers to any official US entry by June 30.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$387,411Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about diplomatic breakthroughs in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with low probabilities assigned to US House members or senators entering Iran amid a fragile ceasefire extended by President Trump but strained by mutual rejections of peace proposals. Recent escalations include the IRGC's five-day drill near Tehran simulating a US ground invasion, featuring drone strikes and sniper tactics, concluded just days ago, alongside reports of Saudi covert airstrikes inside Iran during the 40-day war phase. Pakistani mediation via Army Chief Asim Munir's April visit yielded no US diplomatic entries, while Trump signals potential preemptive operations if Tehran refuses to dismantle uranium enrichment at Kharg Island. Upcoming talks risk collapse without concessions, underscoring barriers to any official US entry by June 30.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$387,411Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about diplomatic breakthroughs in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with low probabilities assigned to US House members or senators entering Iran amid a fragile ceasefire extended by President Trump but strained by mutual rejections of peace proposals. Recent escalations include the IRGC's five-day drill near Tehran simulating a US ground invasion, featuring drone strikes and sniper tactics, concluded just days ago, alongside reports of Saudi covert airstrikes inside Iran during the 40-day war phase. Pakistani mediation via Army Chief Asim Munir's April visit yielded no US diplomatic entries, while Trump signals potential preemptive operations if Tehran refuses to dismantle uranium enrichment at Kharg Island. Upcoming talks risk collapse without concessions, underscoring barriers to any official US entry by June 30.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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