Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, center on ending the 2026 conflict that began with joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear sites and leadership, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Vice President JD Vance stated on May 14 that progress is occurring, yet President Trump has rejected recent Iranian proposals as unacceptable, citing needs to remove enriched uranium, dismantle enrichment facilities, restrict ballistic missiles, and curb proxy support. A fragile ceasefire with Lebanon extensions remains in place amid reported violations, while disputes over Strait of Hormuz access persist. These core security demands create substantial barriers to any comprehensive Israel-Iran agreement, with traders focusing on whether diplomatic momentum can overcome entrenched positions before escalation risks rise.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$911,043 Vol.
31 mai 2026
May 31
4%
30 juin
14%
$911,043 Vol.
May 31
$261,244 Vol.
4%
30 juin
$335,184 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, center on ending the 2026 conflict that began with joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear sites and leadership, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Vice President JD Vance stated on May 14 that progress is occurring, yet President Trump has rejected recent Iranian proposals as unacceptable, citing needs to remove enriched uranium, dismantle enrichment facilities, restrict ballistic missiles, and curb proxy support. A fragile ceasefire with Lebanon extensions remains in place amid reported violations, while disputes over Strait of Hormuz access persist. These core security demands create substantial barriers to any comprehensive Israel-Iran agreement, with traders focusing on whether diplomatic momentum can overcome entrenched positions before escalation risks rise.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Volume
$911,043Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, center on ending the 2026 conflict that began with joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear sites and leadership, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Vice President JD Vance stated on May 14 that progress is occurring, yet President Trump has rejected recent Iranian proposals as unacceptable, citing needs to remove enriched uranium, dismantle enrichment facilities, restrict ballistic missiles, and curb proxy support. A fragile ceasefire with Lebanon extensions remains in place amid reported violations, while disputes over Strait of Hormuz access persist. These core security demands create substantial barriers to any comprehensive Israel-Iran agreement, with traders focusing on whether diplomatic momentum can overcome entrenched positions before escalation risks rise.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$911,043Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, center on ending the 2026 conflict that began with joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear sites and leadership, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Vice President JD Vance stated on May 14 that progress is occurring, yet President Trump has rejected recent Iranian proposals as unacceptable, citing needs to remove enriched uranium, dismantle enrichment facilities, restrict ballistic missiles, and curb proxy support. A fragile ceasefire with Lebanon extensions remains in place amid reported violations, while disputes over Strait of Hormuz access persist. These core security demands create substantial barriers to any comprehensive Israel-Iran agreement, with traders focusing on whether diplomatic momentum can overcome entrenched positions before escalation risks rise.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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