Traders assign an 82.5 percent probability that China will not invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027, because Beijing continues to favor sustained gray-zone pressure over preparations for large-scale amphibious operations. Recent PLA activities, including routine air defense identification zone incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen, and naval exercises east of the Luzon Strait in response to U.S.-Philippine drills, show no signs of the mass troop mobilizations or sealift assembly needed for invasion. Taiwan has responded by advancing plans to deploy long-range HIMARS rocket systems to outlying islands, creating potential strike coverage over mainland staging areas, while U.S. legislative proposals for targeted sanctions against aggression add to deterrence. Intelligence assessments continue to highlight the lack of any fixed timeline, keeping the focus on ongoing diplomatic isolation efforts and logistical barriers rather than imminent conflict.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$577,036 Vol.
$577,036 Vol.
Oui
$577,036 Vol.
$577,036 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Résolveur
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Résolveur
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign an 82.5 percent probability that China will not invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027, because Beijing continues to favor sustained gray-zone pressure over preparations for large-scale amphibious operations. Recent PLA activities, including routine air defense identification zone incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen, and naval exercises east of the Luzon Strait in response to U.S.-Philippine drills, show no signs of the mass troop mobilizations or sealift assembly needed for invasion. Taiwan has responded by advancing plans to deploy long-range HIMARS rocket systems to outlying islands, creating potential strike coverage over mainland staging areas, while U.S. legislative proposals for targeted sanctions against aggression add to deterrence. Intelligence assessments continue to highlight the lack of any fixed timeline, keeping the focus on ongoing diplomatic isolation efforts and logistical barriers rather than imminent conflict.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes