Ongoing gray-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including coast guard vessel rammings and water cannon incidents near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, have not escalated into direct military clashes between armed forces. Recent September 2026 collisions involving Philippine Bureau of Fisheries vessels and Chinese coast guard cutters produced competing accusations but no casualties or naval engagements, consistent with patterns of controlled friction. Manila’s strengthened defense cooperation with the United States, including joint maritime activities and equipment transfers, alongside bilateral diplomatic talks emphasizing de-escalation, supports trader views that both sides prioritize avoiding open conflict through 2026. Structural factors such as alliance deterrence and mutual interest in regional stability further align with the 73% probability assigned to no clash before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
27% chance
$481,446 Vol.
$481,446 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
27% chance
$481,446 Vol.
$481,446 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing gray-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including coast guard vessel rammings and water cannon incidents near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, have not escalated into direct military clashes between armed forces. Recent September 2026 collisions involving Philippine Bureau of Fisheries vessels and Chinese coast guard cutters produced competing accusations but no casualties or naval engagements, consistent with patterns of controlled friction. Manila’s strengthened defense cooperation with the United States, including joint maritime activities and equipment transfers, alongside bilateral diplomatic talks emphasizing de-escalation, supports trader views that both sides prioritize avoiding open conflict through 2026. Structural factors such as alliance deterrence and mutual interest in regional stability further align with the 73% probability assigned to no clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$481,446Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing gray-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including coast guard vessel rammings and water cannon incidents near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, have not escalated into direct military clashes between armed forces. Recent September 2026 collisions involving Philippine Bureau of Fisheries vessels and Chinese coast guard cutters produced competing accusations but no casualties or naval engagements, consistent with patterns of controlled friction. Manila’s strengthened defense cooperation with the United States, including joint maritime activities and equipment transfers, alongside bilateral diplomatic talks emphasizing de-escalation, supports trader views that both sides prioritize avoiding open conflict through 2026. Structural factors such as alliance deterrence and mutual interest in regional stability further align with the 73% probability assigned to no clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$481,446Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Ongoing gray-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including coast guard vessel rammings and water cannon incidents near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, have not escalated into direct military clashes between armed forces. Recent September 2026 collisions involving Philippine Bureau of Fisheries vessels and Chinese coast guard cutters produced competing accusations but no casualties or naval engagements, consistent with patterns of controlled friction. Manila’s strengthened defense cooperation with the United States, including joint maritime activities and equipment transfers, alongside bilateral diplomatic talks emphasizing de-escalation, supports trader views that both sides prioritize avoiding open conflict through 2026. Structural factors such as alliance deterrence and mutual interest in regional stability further align with the 73% probability assigned to no clash before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes