Trader consensus prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, at just 7.5%, anchored by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 annual threat assessment concluding Beijing lacks commitment to a 2027 attack and prioritizes non-military coercion for control. Recent PLA exercises, including South China Sea deployments in early May, represent routine gray-zone pressure without observable invasion preparations, amid sustained U.S. deterrence via Balikatan multinational drills through May 8, planned $2 billion in military aid, and troop buildups near the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan's live-fire anti-tank missile tests simulating amphibious assaults further bolster defenses, while upcoming Trump-Xi talks on arms sales highlight diplomatic guardrails. High economic costs and alliance risks sustain low probabilities barring sudden escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ?
La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ?
Oui
$23,356,221 Vol.
$23,356,221 Vol.
Oui
$23,356,221 Vol.
$23,356,221 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Résolveur
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Résolveur
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, at just 7.5%, anchored by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 annual threat assessment concluding Beijing lacks commitment to a 2027 attack and prioritizes non-military coercion for control. Recent PLA exercises, including South China Sea deployments in early May, represent routine gray-zone pressure without observable invasion preparations, amid sustained U.S. deterrence via Balikatan multinational drills through May 8, planned $2 billion in military aid, and troop buildups near the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan's live-fire anti-tank missile tests simulating amphibious assaults further bolster defenses, while upcoming Trump-Xi talks on arms sales highlight diplomatic guardrails. High economic costs and alliance risks sustain low probabilities barring sudden escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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