Traders assign a 96.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 because recent military signaling has remained limited to reduced air defense identification zone incursions, expanded coast guard patrols, and joint exercises that fall short of invasion rehearsals. Chinese leadership has prioritized coercive diplomacy, outreach to Taiwan’s opposition parties ahead of future elections, and incremental pressure over large-scale amphibious operations. Internal People’s Liberation Army challenges, including senior purges and questions over readiness, have further constrained options in the narrow remaining window. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang drills, reservist mobilization, and enhanced U.S. maritime cooperation underscore defensive preparations that raise the costs of any sudden move. While a miscalculation, major Taiwanese political shift, or unexpected external trigger could still alter trajectories before December 31, the current pattern of calibrated coercion without decisive escalation underpins the strong market consensus against an invasion this year.