Recent military strikes by Israel and the United States have damaged or destroyed key Iranian uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting access to remaining stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium. IAEA inspectors have had no entry to affected sites since mid-2025, and satellite imagery shows ongoing but early-stage reconstruction at weaponization-related locations such as Minzadayi. Ongoing diplomatic talks, including U.S. demands for verifiable reductions in enrichment capacity, combined with procedural timelines for any full-scale test, underpin trader consensus that Iran lacks the immediate operational readiness for a nuclear explosive test before 2027. Late-breaking escalation or covert breakthroughs remain possible but face substantial technical and political barriers in the short window.