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icon for L'Ukraine signe-t-elle un accord de paix avec la Russie avant 2027 ?
Politique·Ukraine

L'Ukraine signe-t-elle un accord de paix avec la Russie avant 2027 ?

icon for L'Ukraine signe-t-elle un accord de paix avec la Russie avant 2027 ?
Politique·Ukraine

L'Ukraine signe-t-elle un accord de paix avec la Russie avant 2027 ?

août 31

déc. 31

août 31

déc. 31

Oui

16% chance
Polymarket

$2,557,337 Vol.

Oui

16% chance
Polymarket

$2,557,337 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations underpins the 84% trader consensus against a peace deal before 2027. Formal talks, including trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026, yielded only prisoner exchanges amid persistent disputes over territorial concessions in Donbas, Ukrainian security guarantees, and NATO alignment. The Kremlin has stated there is no immediate prospect of resuming substantive talks, with President Putin rejecting direct meetings with President Zelenskyy absent major Ukrainian concessions. Recent US-mediated proposals from Kyiv in August 2026 have not prompted Russian engagement, as Moscow maintains maximalist demands while battlefield dynamics and European initiatives show limited momentum for rapid resolution within the remaining months of 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.

Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.

The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,557,337
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations underpins the 84% trader consensus against a peace deal before 2027. Formal talks, including trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026, yielded only prisoner exchanges amid persistent disputes over territorial concessions in Donbas, Ukrainian security guarantees, and NATO alignment. The Kremlin has stated there is no immediate prospect of resuming substantive talks, with President Putin rejecting direct meetings with President Zelenskyy absent major Ukrainian concessions. Recent US-mediated proposals from Kyiv in August 2026 have not prompted Russian engagement, as Moscow maintains maximalist demands while battlefield dynamics and European initiatives show limited momentum for rapid resolution within the remaining months of 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.

Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.

The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,557,337
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Connexes

icon for Russie x Ukraine : pourparlers de paix

Russie x Ukraine : pourparlers de paix

9%
Oui
icon for L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder du territoire à la Russie avant 2027 ?

L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder du territoire à la Russie avant 2027 ?

8%
Oui
icon for L’Ukraine accepte-t-elle de ne pas rejoindre l’OTAN avant 2027 ?

L’Ukraine accepte-t-elle de ne pas rejoindre l’OTAN avant 2027 ?

9%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« L'Ukraine signe-t-elle un accord de paix avec la Russie avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « L'Ukraine signe-t-elle un accord de paix avec la Russie avant 2027 ? » à 16%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 16¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 16% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « L'Ukraine signe-t-elle un accord de paix avec la Russie avant 2027 ? » a généré $2.6 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 5, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

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