China’s ongoing but normalized military activities around Taiwan, including reduced ADIZ incursions and routine coast guard operations rather than large-scale amphibious buildups, support the 91.5% trader consensus against an invasion by June 30, 2027. Beijing has emphasized coercive campaigns short of war while Xi Jinping’s public statements focus on “peaceful development” and the 2028 Taiwan elections, with reunification described as a long-term trend rather than an immediate objective. Domestic factors such as economic pressures, military leadership purges, and preparations for the 2027 Party Congress further constrain near-term offensive options. Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises, featuring record reservist mobilization and U.S.-modeled defenses, alongside assessments from U.S. intelligence indicating low near-term risk, reinforce this positioning. No verified indicators of imminent invasion planning have emerged in recent months.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici le 30 juin 2027 ?
La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici le 30 juin 2027 ?
Oui
9% chance
$419,407 Vol.
$419,407 Vol.
30 juin 2027
Oui
9% chance
$419,407 Vol.
$419,407 Vol.
30 juin 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China’s ongoing but normalized military activities around Taiwan, including reduced ADIZ incursions and routine coast guard operations rather than large-scale amphibious buildups, support the 91.5% trader consensus against an invasion by June 30, 2027. Beijing has emphasized coercive campaigns short of war while Xi Jinping’s public statements focus on “peaceful development” and the 2028 Taiwan elections, with reunification described as a long-term trend rather than an immediate objective. Domestic factors such as economic pressures, military leadership purges, and preparations for the 2027 Party Congress further constrain near-term offensive options. Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises, featuring record reservist mobilization and U.S.-modeled defenses, alongside assessments from U.S. intelligence indicating low near-term risk, reinforce this positioning. No verified indicators of imminent invasion planning have emerged in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Volume
$419,407Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China’s ongoing but normalized military activities around Taiwan, including reduced ADIZ incursions and routine coast guard operations rather than large-scale amphibious buildups, support the 91.5% trader consensus against an invasion by June 30, 2027. Beijing has emphasized coercive campaigns short of war while Xi Jinping’s public statements focus on “peaceful development” and the 2028 Taiwan elections, with reunification described as a long-term trend rather than an immediate objective. Domestic factors such as economic pressures, military leadership purges, and preparations for the 2027 Party Congress further constrain near-term offensive options. Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises, featuring record reservist mobilization and U.S.-modeled defenses, alongside assessments from U.S. intelligence indicating low near-term risk, reinforce this positioning. No verified indicators of imminent invasion planning have emerged in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$419,407Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China’s ongoing but normalized military activities around Taiwan, including reduced ADIZ incursions and routine coast guard operations rather than large-scale amphibious buildups, support the 91.5% trader consensus against an invasion by June 30, 2027. Beijing has emphasized coercive campaigns short of war while Xi Jinping’s public statements focus on “peaceful development” and the 2028 Taiwan elections, with reunification described as a long-term trend rather than an immediate objective. Domestic factors such as economic pressures, military leadership purges, and preparations for the 2027 Party Congress further constrain near-term offensive options. Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises, featuring record reservist mobilization and U.S.-modeled defenses, alongside assessments from U.S. intelligence indicating low near-term risk, reinforce this positioning. No verified indicators of imminent invasion planning have emerged in recent months.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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