Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks commitment to such action due to prohibitive economic and military costs, including potential derailment of domestic development and U.S. intervention risks. Recent Xi-Trump summit talks in Beijing on May 14 emphasized diplomatic warnings over Taiwan—urging restraint on U.S. arms sales—amid trade negotiations and Middle East distractions, signaling de-escalation rather than imminent aggression. Ongoing PLA drills appear routine, while Taiwan's stalled defense budget and China's economic pressures further diminish short-term invasion feasibility, though surprises like heightened territorial disputes could shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici le 30 juin 2027 ?
La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici le 30 juin 2027 ?
Oui
$185,911 Vol.
$185,911 Vol.
30 juin 2027
Oui
$185,911 Vol.
$185,911 Vol.
30 juin 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks commitment to such action due to prohibitive economic and military costs, including potential derailment of domestic development and U.S. intervention risks. Recent Xi-Trump summit talks in Beijing on May 14 emphasized diplomatic warnings over Taiwan—urging restraint on U.S. arms sales—amid trade negotiations and Middle East distractions, signaling de-escalation rather than imminent aggression. Ongoing PLA drills appear routine, while Taiwan's stalled defense budget and China's economic pressures further diminish short-term invasion feasibility, though surprises like heightened territorial disputes could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Volume
$185,911Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks commitment to such action due to prohibitive economic and military costs, including potential derailment of domestic development and U.S. intervention risks. Recent Xi-Trump summit talks in Beijing on May 14 emphasized diplomatic warnings over Taiwan—urging restraint on U.S. arms sales—amid trade negotiations and Middle East distractions, signaling de-escalation rather than imminent aggression. Ongoing PLA drills appear routine, while Taiwan's stalled defense budget and China's economic pressures further diminish short-term invasion feasibility, though surprises like heightened territorial disputes could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$185,911Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks commitment to such action due to prohibitive economic and military costs, including potential derailment of domestic development and U.S. intervention risks. Recent Xi-Trump summit talks in Beijing on May 14 emphasized diplomatic warnings over Taiwan—urging restraint on U.S. arms sales—amid trade negotiations and Middle East distractions, signaling de-escalation rather than imminent aggression. Ongoing PLA drills appear routine, while Taiwan's stalled defense budget and China's economic pressures further diminish short-term invasion feasibility, though surprises like heightened territorial disputes could shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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