US intelligence assessments, including the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders currently have no plan or fixed timeline for invading Taiwan in 2027, despite ongoing PLA modernization benchmarks and military exercises around the strait. This consensus underpins trader positioning, reinforced by recent PLA leadership changes, persistent cross-strait diplomatic friction without escalation signals, and Taiwan’s expanded defensive drills and asymmetric capabilities such as drone programs. While Beijing continues maritime patrols and live-fire activities in response to Taiwanese statements, these fall short of invasion preparations. Scheduled events through mid-2027, including potential leadership summits or policy shifts, could still alter dynamics, but current evidence points to sustained deterrence and high barriers to major military action.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici le 30 juin 2027 ?
La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici le 30 juin 2027 ?
Oui
9% chance
$419,653 Vol.
$419,653 Vol.
30 juin 2027
Oui
9% chance
$419,653 Vol.
$419,653 Vol.
30 juin 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders currently have no plan or fixed timeline for invading Taiwan in 2027, despite ongoing PLA modernization benchmarks and military exercises around the strait. This consensus underpins trader positioning, reinforced by recent PLA leadership changes, persistent cross-strait diplomatic friction without escalation signals, and Taiwan’s expanded defensive drills and asymmetric capabilities such as drone programs. While Beijing continues maritime patrols and live-fire activities in response to Taiwanese statements, these fall short of invasion preparations. Scheduled events through mid-2027, including potential leadership summits or policy shifts, could still alter dynamics, but current evidence points to sustained deterrence and high barriers to major military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Volume
$419,653Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders currently have no plan or fixed timeline for invading Taiwan in 2027, despite ongoing PLA modernization benchmarks and military exercises around the strait. This consensus underpins trader positioning, reinforced by recent PLA leadership changes, persistent cross-strait diplomatic friction without escalation signals, and Taiwan’s expanded defensive drills and asymmetric capabilities such as drone programs. While Beijing continues maritime patrols and live-fire activities in response to Taiwanese statements, these fall short of invasion preparations. Scheduled events through mid-2027, including potential leadership summits or policy shifts, could still alter dynamics, but current evidence points to sustained deterrence and high barriers to major military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$419,653Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments, including the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders currently have no plan or fixed timeline for invading Taiwan in 2027, despite ongoing PLA modernization benchmarks and military exercises around the strait. This consensus underpins trader positioning, reinforced by recent PLA leadership changes, persistent cross-strait diplomatic friction without escalation signals, and Taiwan’s expanded defensive drills and asymmetric capabilities such as drone programs. While Beijing continues maritime patrols and live-fire activities in response to Taiwanese statements, these fall short of invasion preparations. Scheduled events through mid-2027, including potential leadership summits or policy shifts, could still alter dynamics, but current evidence points to sustained deterrence and high barriers to major military action.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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