US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for Taiwan unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027, favoring coercive measures short of war instead. This outlook aligns with reduced PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ through mid-2026 and ongoing but contained military and law-enforcement activity in the strait. Taiwan continues large-scale Han Kuang exercises and civil-defense preparations through August 2026 to deter and respond to potential blockades or conflict. Traders appear to weigh these steady-state dynamics and the absence of escalation signals more heavily than longer-term capability improvements when pricing the low probability of an invasion by the June 2027 resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici le 30 juin 2027 ?
La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici le 30 juin 2027 ?
Oui
9% chance
$419,407 Vol.
$419,407 Vol.
30 juin 2027
Oui
9% chance
$419,407 Vol.
$419,407 Vol.
30 juin 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for Taiwan unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027, favoring coercive measures short of war instead. This outlook aligns with reduced PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ through mid-2026 and ongoing but contained military and law-enforcement activity in the strait. Taiwan continues large-scale Han Kuang exercises and civil-defense preparations through August 2026 to deter and respond to potential blockades or conflict. Traders appear to weigh these steady-state dynamics and the absence of escalation signals more heavily than longer-term capability improvements when pricing the low probability of an invasion by the June 2027 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Volume
$419,407Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for Taiwan unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027, favoring coercive measures short of war instead. This outlook aligns with reduced PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ through mid-2026 and ongoing but contained military and law-enforcement activity in the strait. Taiwan continues large-scale Han Kuang exercises and civil-defense preparations through August 2026 to deter and respond to potential blockades or conflict. Traders appear to weigh these steady-state dynamics and the absence of escalation signals more heavily than longer-term capability improvements when pricing the low probability of an invasion by the June 2027 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$419,407Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for Taiwan unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027, favoring coercive measures short of war instead. This outlook aligns with reduced PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ through mid-2026 and ongoing but contained military and law-enforcement activity in the strait. Taiwan continues large-scale Han Kuang exercises and civil-defense preparations through August 2026 to deter and respond to potential blockades or conflict. Traders appear to weigh these steady-state dynamics and the absence of escalation signals more heavily than longer-term capability improvements when pricing the low probability of an invasion by the June 2027 resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes