Apple’s ongoing testing of CXMT DRAM chips for China-market devices and early supplier talks reflect efforts to ease an AI-driven memory shortage, yet the 72.5% market-implied probability of “No” for 2026 purchases stems primarily from CXMT’s placement on the U.S. Pentagon blacklist and the need for White House approval. Geopolitical sensitivities, export controls, and reputational risks continue to outweigh technical qualification progress, with any potential deal limited to select products sold domestically in China. Key catalysts ahead include regulatory decisions on waivers and confirmation of commercial volume commitments before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$15,070 Vol.
$15,070 Vol.
Oui
$15,070 Vol.
$15,070 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s ongoing testing of CXMT DRAM chips for China-market devices and early supplier talks reflect efforts to ease an AI-driven memory shortage, yet the 72.5% market-implied probability of “No” for 2026 purchases stems primarily from CXMT’s placement on the U.S. Pentagon blacklist and the need for White House approval. Geopolitical sensitivities, export controls, and reputational risks continue to outweigh technical qualification progress, with any potential deal limited to select products sold domestically in China. Key catalysts ahead include regulatory decisions on waivers and confirmation of commercial volume commitments before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour



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