**Traders see a 71.5% implied probability against Apple launching an entirely new product category before 2027 because the most anticipated breakthroughs—such as lightweight AR smart glasses—have slipped to late 2027 or 2028–2030 timelines amid technical and supply-chain hurdles.** Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and other reporting continue to highlight the foldable iPhone (expected September 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro models) as a major hardware refresh rather than a wholly separate line, while the rumored HomePad smart-home hub and related security accessories represent extensions of existing HomePod and HomeKit ecosystems. Recent updates reinforce this view: AR glasses development has been explicitly pushed beyond 2026, and no other brand-new categories (beyond incremental AI features in AirPods or Watches) carry credible confirmation for a 2026 debut. The September 2026 event under incoming CEO John Ternus remains the clearest near-term catalyst, but market participants view it as unlikely to deliver a true category-defining launch that would resolve the market in the affirmative.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourApple lancera-t-elle une nouvelle gamme de produits avant 2027 ?
Oui
$303,697 Vol.
$303,697 Vol.
Oui
$303,697 Vol.
$303,697 Vol.
A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Apple.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 1:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Apple.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders see a 71.5% implied probability against Apple launching an entirely new product category before 2027 because the most anticipated breakthroughs—such as lightweight AR smart glasses—have slipped to late 2027 or 2028–2030 timelines amid technical and supply-chain hurdles.** Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and other reporting continue to highlight the foldable iPhone (expected September 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro models) as a major hardware refresh rather than a wholly separate line, while the rumored HomePad smart-home hub and related security accessories represent extensions of existing HomePod and HomeKit ecosystems. Recent updates reinforce this view: AR glasses development has been explicitly pushed beyond 2026, and no other brand-new categories (beyond incremental AI features in AirPods or Watches) carry credible confirmation for a 2026 debut. The September 2026 event under incoming CEO John Ternus remains the clearest near-term catalyst, but market participants view it as unlikely to deliver a true category-defining launch that would resolve the market in the affirmative.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour



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