Apple's established annual release cadence, with new iPhone models consistently launching each September, drives the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 arriving in 2026. Supply chain reports and analyst commentary show no major disruptions to production timelines or feature development for the standard lineup, reinforcing trader consensus around the company's predictable hardware cycle. While Apple has shifted some Pro variants or foldables in recent planning, the core iPhone 18 remains on track absent verified delays. Realistic scenarios that could still alter outcomes include last-minute technical setbacks with advanced components, semiconductor constraints, or unexpected regulatory hurdles on device certification, though such factors have rarely derailed prior launches this close to September.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
98% chance
$172,877 Vol.
$172,877 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
98% chance
$172,877 Vol.
$172,877 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence, with new iPhone models consistently launching each September, drives the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 arriving in 2026. Supply chain reports and analyst commentary show no major disruptions to production timelines or feature development for the standard lineup, reinforcing trader consensus around the company's predictable hardware cycle. While Apple has shifted some Pro variants or foldables in recent planning, the core iPhone 18 remains on track absent verified delays. Realistic scenarios that could still alter outcomes include last-minute technical setbacks with advanced components, semiconductor constraints, or unexpected regulatory hurdles on device certification, though such factors have rarely derailed prior launches this close to September.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$172,877Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence, with new iPhone models consistently launching each September, drives the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 arriving in 2026. Supply chain reports and analyst commentary show no major disruptions to production timelines or feature development for the standard lineup, reinforcing trader consensus around the company's predictable hardware cycle. While Apple has shifted some Pro variants or foldables in recent planning, the core iPhone 18 remains on track absent verified delays. Realistic scenarios that could still alter outcomes include last-minute technical setbacks with advanced components, semiconductor constraints, or unexpected regulatory hurdles on device certification, though such factors have rarely derailed prior launches this close to September.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$172,877Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cadence, with new iPhone models consistently launching each September, drives the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 arriving in 2026. Supply chain reports and analyst commentary show no major disruptions to production timelines or feature development for the standard lineup, reinforcing trader consensus around the company's predictable hardware cycle. While Apple has shifted some Pro variants or foldables in recent planning, the core iPhone 18 remains on track absent verified delays. Realistic scenarios that could still alter outcomes include last-minute technical setbacks with advanced components, semiconductor constraints, or unexpected regulatory hurdles on device certification, though such factors have rarely derailed prior launches this close to September.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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