SpaceX achieved repeated Super Heavy booster catches with the launch tower's mechanical arms starting in late 2024, but the Starship upper stage has never attempted a tower catch due to its higher reentry velocities and thermal demands. The main catalyst shifting trader sentiment is Elon Musk's post-Flight 13 announcement in July 2026 that Flight 14—targeted for late August or early September—will include the first Ship catch attempt, building on that mission's intact heat shield and vehicle recovery. This timeline depends on rapid regulatory approval, V3 hardware readiness, and successful booster separation, with the added complexity of orbital return making success less certain than prior booster milestones.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
31 août 2026
31 août 2026
50%
30 septembre 2026
51%
31 octobre 2026
61%
$2 Vol.
31 août 2026
$1 Vol.
50%
30 septembre 2026
$0 Vol.
51%
31 octobre 2026
$1 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX achieved repeated Super Heavy booster catches with the launch tower's mechanical arms starting in late 2024, but the Starship upper stage has never attempted a tower catch due to its higher reentry velocities and thermal demands. The main catalyst shifting trader sentiment is Elon Musk's post-Flight 13 announcement in July 2026 that Flight 14—targeted for late August or early September—will include the first Ship catch attempt, building on that mission's intact heat shield and vehicle recovery. This timeline depends on rapid regulatory approval, V3 hardware readiness, and successful booster separation, with the added complexity of orbital return making success less certain than prior booster milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Marché ouvert : Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
Volume
$2Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX achieved repeated Super Heavy booster catches with the launch tower's mechanical arms starting in late 2024, but the Starship upper stage has never attempted a tower catch due to its higher reentry velocities and thermal demands. The main catalyst shifting trader sentiment is Elon Musk's post-Flight 13 announcement in July 2026 that Flight 14—targeted for late August or early September—will include the first Ship catch attempt, building on that mission's intact heat shield and vehicle recovery. This timeline depends on rapid regulatory approval, V3 hardware readiness, and successful booster separation, with the added complexity of orbital return making success less certain than prior booster milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Volume
$2Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX achieved repeated Super Heavy booster catches with the launch tower's mechanical arms starting in late 2024, but the Starship upper stage has never attempted a tower catch due to its higher reentry velocities and thermal demands. The main catalyst shifting trader sentiment is Elon Musk's post-Flight 13 announcement in July 2026 that Flight 14—targeted for late August or early September—will include the first Ship catch attempt, building on that mission's intact heat shield and vehicle recovery. This timeline depends on rapid regulatory approval, V3 hardware readiness, and successful booster separation, with the added complexity of orbital return making success less certain than prior booster milestones.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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