Anthropic's market-implied odds of 71.5% reflect its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models holding the top spots on September 2026 leaderboards such as BenchAlign and Terminal-Bench, driven by superior results in coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks following early-month releases. These updates extended Anthropic's edge in SWE-Bench Verified and related metrics over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini variants, which trail despite clustered September launches. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning and developer adoption against OpenAI's 12% and Google's 11% odds, with restricted access tiers and slower rival rollouts reinforcing the current consensus ahead of year-end model cycles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 72%
OpenAI 12%
Google 11%
xAI 3.0%
$1,336,570 Vol.
$1,336,570 Vol.

Anthropic
72%

OpenAI
12%

11%

xAI
3%

Meta
3%

Alibaba
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Z.ai
1%

Moonshot
1%

Baidu
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 72%
OpenAI 12%
Google 11%
xAI 3.0%
$1,336,570 Vol.
$1,336,570 Vol.

Anthropic
72%

OpenAI
12%

11%

xAI
3%

Meta
3%

Alibaba
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Z.ai
1%

Moonshot
1%

Baidu
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's market-implied odds of 71.5% reflect its Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models holding the top spots on September 2026 leaderboards such as BenchAlign and Terminal-Bench, driven by superior results in coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks following early-month releases. These updates extended Anthropic's edge in SWE-Bench Verified and related metrics over OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini variants, which trail despite clustered September launches. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning and developer adoption against OpenAI's 12% and Google's 11% odds, with restricted access tiers and slower rival rollouts reinforcing the current consensus ahead of year-end model cycles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour

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