Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases in early September have driven the 77.5% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI model by end of November, as independent benchmarks show these large language models leading on coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks ahead of recent competitors. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s sustained edge in verified performance metrics and enterprise adoption signals, even as OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched September 3 with strong cybersecurity and computer-use capabilities that keep its odds at 8.5%. Google’s Gemini updates and other labs trail further behind on frontier intelligence indices, with no major capability shifts reported in the past two weeks that would alter the current positioning before November resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 78%
Google 9%
OpenAI 9%
Mistral 5.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
Anthropic
78%
9%
OpenAI
9%
Mistral
5%
Baidu
4%
SpaceXAI
4%
ByteDance
4%
Amazon
4%
Moonshot
3%
StepFun
3%
Nvidia
3%
Meta
1%
Alibaba
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
1%
MiniMax
1%
Tencent
1%
Anthropic 78%
Google 9%
OpenAI 9%
Mistral 5.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
Anthropic
$713 Vol.
78%
$212 Vol.
9%
OpenAI
$334 Vol.
9%
Mistral
$111 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$157 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$125 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$155 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$158 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$123 Vol.
3%
StepFun
$186 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$158 Vol.
3%
Meta
$123 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$84 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$156 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$74 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$120 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$74 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$74 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$123 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$74 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$74 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases in early September have driven the 77.5% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI model by end of November, as independent benchmarks show these large language models leading on coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks ahead of recent competitors. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s sustained edge in verified performance metrics and enterprise adoption signals, even as OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched September 3 with strong cybersecurity and computer-use capabilities that keep its odds at 8.5%. Google’s Gemini updates and other labs trail further behind on frontier intelligence indices, with no major capability shifts reported in the past two weeks that would alter the current positioning before November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$3,409Date de fin
1 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases in early September have driven the 77.5% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI model by end of November, as independent benchmarks show these large language models leading on coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks ahead of recent competitors. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s sustained edge in verified performance metrics and enterprise adoption signals, even as OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched September 3 with strong cybersecurity and computer-use capabilities that keep its odds at 8.5%. Google’s Gemini updates and other labs trail further behind on frontier intelligence indices, with no major capability shifts reported in the past two weeks that would alter the current positioning before November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,409Date de fin
1 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases in early September have driven the 77.5% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI model by end of November, as independent benchmarks show these large language models leading on coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks ahead of recent competitors. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s sustained edge in verified performance metrics and enterprise adoption signals, even as OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launched September 3 with strong cybersecurity and computer-use capabilities that keep its odds at 8.5%. Google’s Gemini updates and other labs trail further behind on frontier intelligence indices, with no major capability shifts reported in the past two weeks that would alter the current positioning before November resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes