Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus/Mythos variants, released September 1, 2026, currently top independent leaderboards including BenchLM, LMSYS Arena Elo, and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, leading in coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (September 3) and updates from Google and Meta. This sustained edge, reinforced by Anthropic’s disclosure that its models now lead 26% of internal R&D tasks, drives the 74.5% market-implied probability for Anthropic through November. Traders see limited near-term disruption risk given the two-month window and absence of scheduled rival launches capable of closing the gap on verified metrics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 75%
Meta 11%
Google 9%
Amazon 4.8%

Anthropic
75%

Meta
11%

9%

Amazon
5%

Meituan
3%

StepFun
3%

Thinky
3%

Nvidia
3%

OpenAI
2%

Moonshot
2%

Alibaba
2%

Tencent
1%

Baidu
1%

ByteDance
1%

SpaceXAI
1%

Z.ai
1%

Xiaomi
1%

DeepSeek
1%

MiniMax
1%

Mistral
1%

Microsoft
1%
Anthropic 75%
Meta 11%
Google 9%
Amazon 4.8%

Anthropic
75%

Meta
11%

9%

Amazon
5%

Meituan
3%

StepFun
3%

Thinky
3%

Nvidia
3%

OpenAI
2%

Moonshot
2%

Alibaba
2%

Tencent
1%

Baidu
1%

ByteDance
1%

SpaceXAI
1%

Z.ai
1%

Xiaomi
1%

DeepSeek
1%

MiniMax
1%

Mistral
1%

Microsoft
1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus/Mythos variants, released September 1, 2026, currently top independent leaderboards including BenchLM, LMSYS Arena Elo, and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, leading in coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (September 3) and updates from Google and Meta. This sustained edge, reinforced by Anthropic’s disclosure that its models now lead 26% of internal R&D tasks, drives the 74.5% market-implied probability for Anthropic through November. Traders see limited near-term disruption risk given the two-month window and absence of scheduled rival launches capable of closing the gap on verified metrics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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