Leading AI labs continue to trade the top spot on major benchmarks like GPQA Diamond for reasoning and SWE-Bench for coding, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series recently reclaiming strong positions after its late-April and early-May 2026 releases. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview maintain advantages in agentic tasks and reliability, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI’s Grok 4.3 updates keep those companies competitive through improved context windows and specialized capabilities. This rapid iteration cycle, combined with converging performance across the four frontier labs, creates ongoing uncertainty about which company will hold the outright lead by year-end. Traders are watching for the next major capability jumps ahead of developer conferences and potential regulatory scrutiny on model safety.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$14,147 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
77%
OpenAI
42%
xAI
21%
ByteDance
15%
Meta
14%
Z.ai
11%
DeepSeek
10%
Microsoft
10%
Alibaba
9%
Moonshot
9%
Baidu
9%
Amazon
9%
Mistral
8%
Meituan
7%
$14,147 Vol.
$1,874 Vol.
77%
OpenAI
$3,333 Vol.
42%
xAI
$3,158 Vol.
21%
ByteDance
$1,139 Vol.
15%
Meta
$881 Vol.
14%
Z.ai
$82 Vol.
11%
DeepSeek
$440 Vol.
10%
Microsoft
$100 Vol.
10%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
9%
Moonshot
$320 Vol.
9%
Baidu
$102 Vol.
9%
Amazon
$86 Vol.
9%
Mistral
$1,448 Vol.
8%
Meituan
$1,183 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Leading AI labs continue to trade the top spot on major benchmarks like GPQA Diamond for reasoning and SWE-Bench for coding, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series recently reclaiming strong positions after its late-April and early-May 2026 releases. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview maintain advantages in agentic tasks and reliability, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI’s Grok 4.3 updates keep those companies competitive through improved context windows and specialized capabilities. This rapid iteration cycle, combined with converging performance across the four frontier labs, creates ongoing uncertainty about which company will hold the outright lead by year-end. Traders are watching for the next major capability jumps ahead of developer conferences and potential regulatory scrutiny on model safety.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Volume
$14,147Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Leading AI labs continue to trade the top spot on major benchmarks like GPQA Diamond for reasoning and SWE-Bench for coding, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series recently reclaiming strong positions after its late-April and early-May 2026 releases. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview maintain advantages in agentic tasks and reliability, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI’s Grok 4.3 updates keep those companies competitive through improved context windows and specialized capabilities. This rapid iteration cycle, combined with converging performance across the four frontier labs, creates ongoing uncertainty about which company will hold the outright lead by year-end. Traders are watching for the next major capability jumps ahead of developer conferences and potential regulatory scrutiny on model safety.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$14,147Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Leading AI labs continue to trade the top spot on major benchmarks like GPQA Diamond for reasoning and SWE-Bench for coding, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series recently reclaiming strong positions after its late-April and early-May 2026 releases. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview maintain advantages in agentic tasks and reliability, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI’s Grok 4.3 updates keep those companies competitive through improved context windows and specialized capabilities. This rapid iteration cycle, combined with converging performance across the four frontier labs, creates ongoing uncertainty about which company will hold the outright lead by year-end. Traders are watching for the next major capability jumps ahead of developer conferences and potential regulatory scrutiny on model safety.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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