Recent model releases and leaderboard shifts on arena.ai's Text Arena Math category drive the tight odds, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 variants holding the top spot in mathematical reasoning while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and Google's Gemini updates trade closely behind. Chinese labs such as Alibaba's Qwen series and Moonshot's Kimi models show rapid gains in competition-level problem solving and arena votes, narrowing gaps through specialized training on advanced math datasets. This creates a crowded field where small benchmark improvements or new releases could elevate any of several contenders for second place by October. Traders weigh ongoing competitive releases against typical slippage in model timelines, underscoring the uncertainty reflected in the market-implied probabilities around 43-50% for frontrunners like Google.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourGoogle 43%
Alibaba 17%
Z.ai 10%
Xiaomi 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
43%
Alibaba
17%
Z.ai
10%
Xiaomi
9%
OpenAI
19%
DeepSeek
5%
Anthropic
5%
Meituan
4%
ByteDance
4%
Baidu
4%
Meta
4%
Microsoft
4%
Amazon
3%
StepFun
3%
Moonshot
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Tencent
2%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Nvidia
6%
Google 43%
Alibaba 17%
Z.ai 10%
Xiaomi 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
$5,246 Vol.
43%
Alibaba
$304 Vol.
17%
Z.ai
$224 Vol.
10%
Xiaomi
$62 Vol.
9%
OpenAI
$129 Vol.
19%
DeepSeek
$66 Vol.
5%
Anthropic
$100 Vol.
5%
Meituan
$483 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$132 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$64 Vol.
4%
Meta
$64 Vol.
4%
Microsoft
$260 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$194 Vol.
3%
StepFun
$147 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$64 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$59 Vol.
3%
Tencent
$217 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$99 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$135 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$228 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and leaderboard shifts on arena.ai's Text Arena Math category drive the tight odds, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 variants holding the top spot in mathematical reasoning while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and Google's Gemini updates trade closely behind. Chinese labs such as Alibaba's Qwen series and Moonshot's Kimi models show rapid gains in competition-level problem solving and arena votes, narrowing gaps through specialized training on advanced math datasets. This creates a crowded field where small benchmark improvements or new releases could elevate any of several contenders for second place by October. Traders weigh ongoing competitive releases against typical slippage in model timelines, underscoring the uncertainty reflected in the market-implied probabilities around 43-50% for frontrunners like Google.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$8,275Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and leaderboard shifts on arena.ai's Text Arena Math category drive the tight odds, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 variants holding the top spot in mathematical reasoning while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and Google's Gemini updates trade closely behind. Chinese labs such as Alibaba's Qwen series and Moonshot's Kimi models show rapid gains in competition-level problem solving and arena votes, narrowing gaps through specialized training on advanced math datasets. This creates a crowded field where small benchmark improvements or new releases could elevate any of several contenders for second place by October. Traders weigh ongoing competitive releases against typical slippage in model timelines, underscoring the uncertainty reflected in the market-implied probabilities around 43-50% for frontrunners like Google.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$8,275Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases and leaderboard shifts on arena.ai's Text Arena Math category drive the tight odds, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 variants holding the top spot in mathematical reasoning while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and Google's Gemini updates trade closely behind. Chinese labs such as Alibaba's Qwen series and Moonshot's Kimi models show rapid gains in competition-level problem solving and arena votes, narrowing gaps through specialized training on advanced math datasets. This creates a crowded field where small benchmark improvements or new releases could elevate any of several contenders for second place by October. Traders weigh ongoing competitive releases against typical slippage in model timelines, underscoring the uncertainty reflected in the market-implied probabilities around 43-50% for frontrunners like Google.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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