Recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has positioned Anthropic’s latest Opus-tier large language model as a strong contender for top benchmark rankings by mid-August, with its max and high effort variants trading near even odds against the broad “Other” category. The model delivers frontier-adjacent reasoning, agentic workflows, and coding performance at half the cost of Claude Fable 5 while introducing fast mode and expanded context windows, prompting traders to weigh these efficiency gains against potential capability edges from competitors or Fable itself. Rapid iteration across the Claude 5 family, combined with integration into platforms like Microsoft 365 Copilot, has accelerated adoption signals, yet the narrow spread underscores uncertainty over whether new third-party evaluations or rival launches could shift consensus before August 17 resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourclaude-opus-5-max 77%
claude-opus-5-high 31%
Autre 22%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 août 2026
claude-opus-5-max
77%
claude-opus-5-high
31%
Autre
22%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
9%
claude-opus-4-6
8%
claude-fable-5
5%
claude-opus-5-max 77%
claude-opus-5-high 31%
Autre 22%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 août 2026
claude-opus-5-max
$0 Vol.
77%
claude-opus-5-high
$0 Vol.
31%
Autre
$0 Vol.
22%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$69 Vol.
9%
claude-opus-4-6
$67 Vol.
8%
claude-fable-5
$48 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has positioned Anthropic’s latest Opus-tier large language model as a strong contender for top benchmark rankings by mid-August, with its max and high effort variants trading near even odds against the broad “Other” category. The model delivers frontier-adjacent reasoning, agentic workflows, and coding performance at half the cost of Claude Fable 5 while introducing fast mode and expanded context windows, prompting traders to weigh these efficiency gains against potential capability edges from competitors or Fable itself. Rapid iteration across the Claude 5 family, combined with integration into platforms like Microsoft 365 Copilot, has accelerated adoption signals, yet the narrow spread underscores uncertainty over whether new third-party evaluations or rival launches could shift consensus before August 17 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$184Date de fin
17 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has positioned Anthropic’s latest Opus-tier large language model as a strong contender for top benchmark rankings by mid-August, with its max and high effort variants trading near even odds against the broad “Other” category. The model delivers frontier-adjacent reasoning, agentic workflows, and coding performance at half the cost of Claude Fable 5 while introducing fast mode and expanded context windows, prompting traders to weigh these efficiency gains against potential capability edges from competitors or Fable itself. Rapid iteration across the Claude 5 family, combined with integration into platforms like Microsoft 365 Copilot, has accelerated adoption signals, yet the narrow spread underscores uncertainty over whether new third-party evaluations or rival launches could shift consensus before August 17 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$184Date de fin
17 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has positioned Anthropic’s latest Opus-tier large language model as a strong contender for top benchmark rankings by mid-August, with its max and high effort variants trading near even odds against the broad “Other” category. The model delivers frontier-adjacent reasoning, agentic workflows, and coding performance at half the cost of Claude Fable 5 while introducing fast mode and expanded context windows, prompting traders to weigh these efficiency gains against potential capability edges from competitors or Fable itself. Rapid iteration across the Claude 5 family, combined with integration into platforms like Microsoft 365 Copilot, has accelerated adoption signals, yet the narrow spread underscores uncertainty over whether new third-party evaluations or rival launches could shift consensus before August 17 resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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