Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 80% implied probability because frontier large language models remain clustered below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard despite rapid 2025–2026 gains. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 13.5% after Claude Opus variants posted the highest recent scores near 1510–1580 across related benchmarks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini 3.1. Limited new model releases or benchmark jumps in recent months, combined with typical scaling slowdowns, reinforce expectations that no lab will clear the bar before year-end, though Anthropic’s consistent leadership keeps it the likeliest first mover if momentum returns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun en 2026 80%
Anthropic 14%
Google 5.9%
OpenAI 1.8%
$114,223 Vol.
$114,223 Vol.

Aucun en 2026
80%

Anthropic
14%

6%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
<1%
Aucun en 2026 80%
Anthropic 14%
Google 5.9%
OpenAI 1.8%
$114,223 Vol.
$114,223 Vol.

Aucun en 2026
80%

Anthropic
14%

6%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

Z.ai
1%

Alibaba
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 80% implied probability because frontier large language models remain clustered below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard despite rapid 2025–2026 gains. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 13.5% after Claude Opus variants posted the highest recent scores near 1510–1580 across related benchmarks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini 3.1. Limited new model releases or benchmark jumps in recent months, combined with typical scaling slowdowns, reinforce expectations that no lab will clear the bar before year-end, though Anthropic’s consistent leadership keeps it the likeliest first mover if momentum returns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour



Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes