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icon for Quelle IA de l'entreprise atteindra pour la première fois 1550 sur Chatbot Arena en 2026 ?

Quelle IA de l'entreprise atteindra pour la première fois 1550 sur Chatbot Arena en 2026 ?

icon for Quelle IA de l'entreprise atteindra pour la première fois 1550 sur Chatbot Arena en 2026 ?

Quelle IA de l'entreprise atteindra pour la première fois 1550 sur Chatbot Arena en 2026 ?

Aucun en 2026 57%

Anthropic 32%

Google 11%

OpenAI 2.1%

Polymarket

$54,452 Vol.

Aucun en 2026 57%

Anthropic 32%

Google 11%

OpenAI 2.1%

Polymarket

$54,452 Vol.

icon for Aucun en 2026

Aucun en 2026

$10,084 Vol.

57%

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$6,982 Vol.

32%

icon for Google

Google

$7,388 Vol.

11%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$7,444 Vol.

2%

icon for xAI

xAI

$5,414 Vol.

2%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$4,750 Vol.

1%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$3,688 Vol.

<1%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$4,795 Vol.

<1%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$3,908 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.The market assigns a leading 57.5% implied probability to “None in 2026” because frontier large language models currently top the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at roughly 1500–1506 Elo, with incremental gains from 2026 releases such as OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 failing to close the remaining gap. Traders see the tight competitive landscape—where Anthropic’s consistent safety-focused updates and Google’s multimodal scaling keep pace without decisive breakthroughs—as evidence that hitting 1550 will require longer development cycles than the remainder of the year allows. This positioning leaves Anthropic at 32.5% as the clearest alternative, given its recent model cadence, while OpenAI and xAI trail at 1.8% each amid more measured progress.

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".

If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$54,452
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.The market assigns a leading 57.5% implied probability to “None in 2026” because frontier large language models currently top the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at roughly 1500–1506 Elo, with incremental gains from 2026 releases such as OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 failing to close the remaining gap. Traders see the tight competitive landscape—where Anthropic’s consistent safety-focused updates and Google’s multimodal scaling keep pace without decisive breakthroughs—as evidence that hitting 1550 will require longer development cycles than the remainder of the year allows. This positioning leaves Anthropic at 32.5% as the clearest alternative, given its recent model cadence, while OpenAI and xAI trail at 1.8% each amid more measured progress.

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".

If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$54,452
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

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Questions fréquentes

« Quelle IA de l'entreprise atteindra pour la première fois 1550 sur Chatbot Arena en 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Aucun en 2026 » à 57%, suivi de « Anthropic » à 33%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 57¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 57% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Quelle IA de l'entreprise atteindra pour la première fois 1550 sur Chatbot Arena en 2026 ? » a généré $54.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 13, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Quelle IA de l'entreprise atteindra pour la première fois 1550 sur Chatbot Arena en 2026 ? », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Quelle IA de l'entreprise atteindra pour la première fois 1550 sur Chatbot Arena en 2026 ? » est « Aucun en 2026 » à 57%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 57% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Anthropic » à 33%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Quelle IA de l'entreprise atteindra pour la première fois 1550 sur Chatbot Arena en 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.