**Current top Chatbot Arena Elo ratings hover around 1506–1508 as of late August 2026, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants leading the tightly clustered frontier.** This leaves a substantial gap to the 1550 threshold, and with only four months remaining in the year, incremental releases and preference-vote gains have not produced the rapid jumps needed. Trader consensus assigns an 84% implied probability to no model crossing 1550 in 2026 because historical progress shows steady 10–30 point monthly shifts at best rather than sudden leaps. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 14% odds thanks to its repeated top rankings and specialized high-Elo variants, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail with lower probabilities reflecting their current positioning several points behind. Upcoming model updates could narrow or widen these gaps, but the compressed timeline favors the status quo.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun en 2026 85%
Anthropic 14%
Google 2.7%
OpenAI 1.6%
$119,283 Vol.
$119,283 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Aucun en 2026
85%
Anthropic
14%
3%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Aucun en 2026 85%
Anthropic 14%
Google 2.7%
OpenAI 1.6%
$119,283 Vol.
$119,283 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Aucun en 2026
$25,729 Vol.
85%
Anthropic
$15,450 Vol.
14%
$11,366 Vol.
3%
OpenAI
$13,598 Vol.
2%
xAI
$9,265 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$13,377 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$11,338 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,686 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.**Current top Chatbot Arena Elo ratings hover around 1506–1508 as of late August 2026, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants leading the tightly clustered frontier.** This leaves a substantial gap to the 1550 threshold, and with only four months remaining in the year, incremental releases and preference-vote gains have not produced the rapid jumps needed. Trader consensus assigns an 84% implied probability to no model crossing 1550 in 2026 because historical progress shows steady 10–30 point monthly shifts at best rather than sudden leaps. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 14% odds thanks to its repeated top rankings and specialized high-Elo variants, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail with lower probabilities reflecting their current positioning several points behind. Upcoming model updates could narrow or widen these gaps, but the compressed timeline favors the status quo.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$119,283Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.**Current top Chatbot Arena Elo ratings hover around 1506–1508 as of late August 2026, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants leading the tightly clustered frontier.** This leaves a substantial gap to the 1550 threshold, and with only four months remaining in the year, incremental releases and preference-vote gains have not produced the rapid jumps needed. Trader consensus assigns an 84% implied probability to no model crossing 1550 in 2026 because historical progress shows steady 10–30 point monthly shifts at best rather than sudden leaps. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 14% odds thanks to its repeated top rankings and specialized high-Elo variants, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail with lower probabilities reflecting their current positioning several points behind. Upcoming model updates could narrow or widen these gaps, but the compressed timeline favors the status quo.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$119,283Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...**Current top Chatbot Arena Elo ratings hover around 1506–1508 as of late August 2026, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants leading the tightly clustered frontier.** This leaves a substantial gap to the 1550 threshold, and with only four months remaining in the year, incremental releases and preference-vote gains have not produced the rapid jumps needed. Trader consensus assigns an 84% implied probability to no model crossing 1550 in 2026 because historical progress shows steady 10–30 point monthly shifts at best rather than sudden leaps. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 14% odds thanks to its repeated top rankings and specialized high-Elo variants, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail with lower probabilities reflecting their current positioning several points behind. Upcoming model updates could narrow or widen these gaps, but the compressed timeline favors the status quo.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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