Traders assign a 92.9% probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through normalized PLA air and naval activity, live-fire drills, and blockade simulations without the large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for kinetic operations in the remaining months of 2026. Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises and U.S. arms support have reinforced defensive readiness, while diplomatic channels, including opposition party engagement with Beijing, and high expected costs from potential U.S. and allied intervention continue to favor coercion over direct conflict. Recent maritime traffic controls and reduced ADIZ incursions further signal calibrated signaling rather than escalation thresholds being crossed.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
7% chance
$3,214,189 Vol.
$3,214,189 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
7% chance
$3,214,189 Vol.
$3,214,189 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.9% probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through normalized PLA air and naval activity, live-fire drills, and blockade simulations without the large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for kinetic operations in the remaining months of 2026. Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises and U.S. arms support have reinforced defensive readiness, while diplomatic channels, including opposition party engagement with Beijing, and high expected costs from potential U.S. and allied intervention continue to favor coercion over direct conflict. Recent maritime traffic controls and reduced ADIZ incursions further signal calibrated signaling rather than escalation thresholds being crossed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$3,214,189Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.9% probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through normalized PLA air and naval activity, live-fire drills, and blockade simulations without the large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for kinetic operations in the remaining months of 2026. Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises and U.S. arms support have reinforced defensive readiness, while diplomatic channels, including opposition party engagement with Beijing, and high expected costs from potential U.S. and allied intervention continue to favor coercion over direct conflict. Recent maritime traffic controls and reduced ADIZ incursions further signal calibrated signaling rather than escalation thresholds being crossed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,214,189Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 92.9% probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through normalized PLA air and naval activity, live-fire drills, and blockade simulations without the large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for kinetic operations in the remaining months of 2026. Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises and U.S. arms support have reinforced defensive readiness, while diplomatic channels, including opposition party engagement with Beijing, and high expected costs from potential U.S. and allied intervention continue to favor coercion over direct conflict. Recent maritime traffic controls and reduced ADIZ incursions further signal calibrated signaling rather than escalation thresholds being crossed.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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