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Politique·Taïwan

Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hualien

icon for Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hualien
Politique·Taïwan

Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hualien

Yu Shu-chen 72%

Wei Chia-hsien 13%

Chang Chun 13%

Lo Pei-chin 2.3%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Yu Shu-chen 72%

Wei Chia-hsien 13%

Chang Chun 13%

Lo Pei-chin 2.3%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Yu Shu-chen

Yu Shu-chen

$916 Vol.

72%

icon for Wei Chia-hsien

Wei Chia-hsien

$261 Vol.

13%

icon for Chang Chun

Chang Chun

$518 Vol.

13%

icon for Lo Pei-chin

Lo Pei-chin

$305 Vol.

2%

icon for Yeh Yao-hui

Yeh Yao-hui

$519 Vol.

1%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hualien County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).KMT's March 2026 nomination of Jian Township head Yu Shu-chen as its official candidate for Hualien County magistrate has anchored trader pricing, reflecting the party's organizational strength and historical dominance in the county ahead of the November 28 local elections. Incumbent Hsu Chen-wei is term-limited, and internal party polling guided the selection over challengers including Chang Chun and Yeh Yao-hui. Independent Wei Chia-hsien's candidacy and lower-priced alternatives such as Lo Pei-chin register limited market support, consistent with structural barriers for non-KMT contenders. No major shifts in candidate field or polling have emerged since the nomination, leaving Yu Shu-chen as the clear frontrunner in crowd-sourced probabilities while late developments or additional entries could still influence outcomes before voting.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hualien County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$2,520
Date de fin
28 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 9:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hualien County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hualien County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).KMT's March 2026 nomination of Jian Township head Yu Shu-chen as its official candidate for Hualien County magistrate has anchored trader pricing, reflecting the party's organizational strength and historical dominance in the county ahead of the November 28 local elections. Incumbent Hsu Chen-wei is term-limited, and internal party polling guided the selection over challengers including Chang Chun and Yeh Yao-hui. Independent Wei Chia-hsien's candidacy and lower-priced alternatives such as Lo Pei-chin register limited market support, consistent with structural barriers for non-KMT contenders. No major shifts in candidate field or polling have emerged since the nomination, leaving Yu Shu-chen as the clear frontrunner in crowd-sourced probabilities while late developments or additional entries could still influence outcomes before voting.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hualien County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$2,520
Date de fin
28 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 9:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hualien County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Connexes

icon for Tsai Yi-yu va-t-il gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Chiayi ?

Tsai Yi-yu va-t-il gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Chiayi ?

85%
Oui
icon for Chung Tung-chin remportera-t-il la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Miaoli ?

Chung Tung-chin remportera-t-il la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Miaoli ?

89%
Oui
icon for Wu Hsiu-hua va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Taitung ?

Wu Hsiu-hua va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Taitung ?

74%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hualien » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Yu Shu-chen » à 72%, suivi de « Wei Chia-hsien » à 13%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 72¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 72% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hualien » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 14, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hualien », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hualien » est « Yu Shu-chen » à 72%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 72% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Wei Chia-hsien » à 13%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Gagnant de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Hualien » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.