Mary Peltola holds a strong lead in trader consensus for Alaska’s November 3 Senate contest because she topped the August top-four primary with 49.5 percent and has maintained advantages in recent ranked-choice voting simulations, including a 53-47 projected win in an AARP survey of likely voters. Fisheries management has emerged as the central issue, with Peltola leveraging her commercial fishing background to criticize trawl bycatch while Sullivan emphasizes his Senate record on appropriations and legislation. Peltola’s fundraising edge and the limited vote share of minor candidates further bolster her position under Alaska’s ranked-choice system, though the race remains competitive given the state’s Republican lean and recent internal campaign developments on both sides.