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icon for Élections législatives suédoises : KD de plus/moins de 6 % ?
Politique·Élections Mondiales

Élections législatives suédoises : KD de plus/moins de 6 % ?

icon for Élections législatives suédoises : KD de plus/moins de 6 % ?
Politique·Élections Mondiales

Élections législatives suédoises : KD de plus/moins de 6 % ?

Over

64% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Over

64% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling for Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election places Kristdemokraterna (KD) support between 6.1% and 7.5%, with the latest Demoskop survey from early August showing 7.5% after earlier readings near 6.1%. As the smallest partner in the Tidö governing bloc alongside the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, and Liberals, the party has recorded modest consolidation within the centre-right alliance even as the overall government side trails the red-green opposition. SCB data from May registered lower figures around 4%, but more recent Novus, Indikator, and Demoskop surveys reflect incremental gains of roughly one point amid stable voter preferences. Trader consensus at 64% implied probability for an outcome above 6% aligns with this polling range and KD’s historical performance clearing the 4% threshold in coalition contexts.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$229
Date de fin
13 sept. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling for Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election places Kristdemokraterna (KD) support between 6.1% and 7.5%, with the latest Demoskop survey from early August showing 7.5% after earlier readings near 6.1%. As the smallest partner in the Tidö governing bloc alongside the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, and Liberals, the party has recorded modest consolidation within the centre-right alliance even as the overall government side trails the red-green opposition. SCB data from May registered lower figures around 4%, but more recent Novus, Indikator, and Demoskop surveys reflect incremental gains of roughly one point amid stable voter preferences. Trader consensus at 64% implied probability for an outcome above 6% aligns with this polling range and KD’s historical performance clearing the 4% threshold in coalition contexts.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$229
Date de fin
13 sept. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

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icon for Les Démocrates chrétiens (KD) obtiendront-ils entre 5 % et 7 % de tous les suffrages valides ?

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Oui

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Questions fréquentes

« Élections législatives suédoises : KD de plus/moins de 6 % ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Over/Under 6%? » à 64%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 64¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 64% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Élections législatives suédoises : KD de plus/moins de 6 % ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 13, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Élections législatives suédoises : KD de plus/moins de 6 % ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Élections législatives suédoises : KD de plus/moins de 6 % ? » est « Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Over/Under 6%? » à 64%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 64% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Élections législatives suédoises : KD de plus/moins de 6 % ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.