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Politique·Taïwan

Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Penghu

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Penghu
Politique·Taïwan

Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Penghu

Chen Chen-chung 59%

Wu Shu-chin 24%

Yeh Chu-lin 5.1%

Chou Ni-an 5%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Chen Chen-chung 59%

Wu Shu-chin 24%

Yeh Chu-lin 5.1%

Chou Ni-an 5%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Chen Chen-chung

Chen Chen-chung

$1,367 Vol.

59%

icon for Wu Shu-chin

Wu Shu-chin

$1,133 Vol.

24%

icon for Yeh Chu-lin

Yeh Chu-lin

$256 Vol.

10%

icon for Chou Ni-an

Chou Ni-an

$350 Vol.

5%

icon for Chen Chin-chuan

Chen Chin-chuan

$199 Vol.

5%

icon for Hsu Chih-fu

Hsu Chih-fu

$744 Vol.

4%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Penghu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chen Chen-chung's position as the KMT-nominated candidate has consolidated trader expectations for the November 28, 2026, Penghu County Magistrate contest, with the party formally approving his candidacy in spring 2026 after internal polling. Incumbent Chen Kuang-fu of the DPP has signaled continued participation despite earlier health concerns, while an independent former KMT figure has entered the field, raising the prospect of vote fragmentation among non-DPP voters and keeping the contest competitive. These nomination and candidacy dynamics, occurring within Taiwan's local election cycle, account for Chen Chen-chung's lead in market pricing over lower-odds contenders such as Wu Shu-chin and Yeh Chu-lin. Further developments including candidate withdrawals, party coordination agreements, or shifts in local polling could alter implied probabilities before election day.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Penghu County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$4,048
Date de fin
28 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 9:03 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Penghu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Penghu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chen Chen-chung's position as the KMT-nominated candidate has consolidated trader expectations for the November 28, 2026, Penghu County Magistrate contest, with the party formally approving his candidacy in spring 2026 after internal polling. Incumbent Chen Kuang-fu of the DPP has signaled continued participation despite earlier health concerns, while an independent former KMT figure has entered the field, raising the prospect of vote fragmentation among non-DPP voters and keeping the contest competitive. These nomination and candidacy dynamics, occurring within Taiwan's local election cycle, account for Chen Chen-chung's lead in market pricing over lower-odds contenders such as Wu Shu-chin and Yeh Chu-lin. Further developments including candidate withdrawals, party coordination agreements, or shifts in local polling could alter implied probabilities before election day.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Penghu County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$4,048
Date de fin
28 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 9:03 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Penghu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Connexes

icon for Chou Chun-mi remportera-t-elle la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Pingtung ?

Chou Chun-mi remportera-t-elle la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Pingtung ?

87%
Oui
icon for Hsu Hsin-ying va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection pour le magistrat du comté de Hsinchu ?

Hsu Hsin-ying va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection pour le magistrat du comté de Hsinchu ?

83%
Oui
icon for Wu Hsiu-hua va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Taitung ?

Wu Hsiu-hua va-t-elle gagner la prochaine élection du magistrat du comté de Taitung ?

86%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Penghu » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Chen Chen-chung » à 59%, suivi de « Wu Shu-chin » à 24%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 59¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 59% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Penghu » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 14, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Penghu », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Penghu » est « Chen Chen-chung » à 59%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 59% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Wu Shu-chin » à 24%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection du magistrat du comté de Penghu » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.