Recent polling averages place Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by roughly three to four points among likely voters in Michigan’s open Senate race, with margins ranging from one to seven points across September surveys. El-Sayed consolidated support after his narrow August primary victory and benefits from voter sentiment tied to opposition of the Trump administration, as highlighted in Suffolk University and New York Times/Siena results. The Detroit Free Press endorsement and a campaign appearance by Kamala Harris added visibility in the closing weeks. Handicappers have shifted the contest from toss-up to Lean Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current market pricing that prices in the Democratic edge while leaving room for late shifts driven by turnout or undecided voters.