**Multiple Republican candidates have qualified for the open LA-05 seat in Louisiana’s November 3 jungle primary, fragmenting the GOP vote in a district that has consistently delivered strong Republican margins.** Incumbent Julia Letlow’s decision to run for Senate has created an open race featuring several GOP contenders alongside a smaller Democratic field. Louisiana’s majority-vote requirement for an outright primary victory has historically produced runoffs when no single candidate consolidates broad support early, and current candidate filings and limited polling show no frontrunner positioned to exceed 50 percent. Trader consensus pricing the “No” outcome at 92.5 percent therefore reflects the structural likelihood of vote splitting and the absence of any dominant name-recognition or fundraising advantage sufficient to avoid a December 12 runoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
8% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Oui
8% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.**Multiple Republican candidates have qualified for the open LA-05 seat in Louisiana’s November 3 jungle primary, fragmenting the GOP vote in a district that has consistently delivered strong Republican margins.** Incumbent Julia Letlow’s decision to run for Senate has created an open race featuring several GOP contenders alongside a smaller Democratic field. Louisiana’s majority-vote requirement for an outright primary victory has historically produced runoffs when no single candidate consolidates broad support early, and current candidate filings and limited polling show no frontrunner positioned to exceed 50 percent. Trader consensus pricing the “No” outcome at 92.5 percent therefore reflects the structural likelihood of vote splitting and the absence of any dominant name-recognition or fundraising advantage sufficient to avoid a December 12 runoff.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,475Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.**Multiple Republican candidates have qualified for the open LA-05 seat in Louisiana’s November 3 jungle primary, fragmenting the GOP vote in a district that has consistently delivered strong Republican margins.** Incumbent Julia Letlow’s decision to run for Senate has created an open race featuring several GOP contenders alongside a smaller Democratic field. Louisiana’s majority-vote requirement for an outright primary victory has historically produced runoffs when no single candidate consolidates broad support early, and current candidate filings and limited polling show no frontrunner positioned to exceed 50 percent. Trader consensus pricing the “No” outcome at 92.5 percent therefore reflects the structural likelihood of vote splitting and the absence of any dominant name-recognition or fundraising advantage sufficient to avoid a December 12 runoff.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
Volume
$1,475Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Multiple Republican candidates have qualified for the open LA-05 seat in Louisiana’s November 3 jungle primary, fragmenting the GOP vote in a district that has consistently delivered strong Republican margins.** Incumbent Julia Letlow’s decision to run for Senate has created an open race featuring several GOP contenders alongside a smaller Democratic field. Louisiana’s majority-vote requirement for an outright primary victory has historically produced runoffs when no single candidate consolidates broad support early, and current candidate filings and limited polling show no frontrunner positioned to exceed 50 percent. Trader consensus pricing the “No” outcome at 92.5 percent therefore reflects the structural likelihood of vote splitting and the absence of any dominant name-recognition or fundraising advantage sufficient to avoid a December 12 runoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes