**Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a dominant position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, jungle primary.** The seat’s consistent Republican voting patterns, Scalise’s long tenure since 2008, and his role as House Majority Leader support strong name recognition, fundraising, and endorsements that favor a first-round majority. Recent redistricting after the Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais and the new map signed in May 2026 preserved the district’s partisan balance. Challengers—including Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and Independent Liddy Glass—have not altered the consensus around an outright win. In Louisiana’s majority-vote primary system, traders view an outright victory (avoiding a December 12 runoff) as highly probable given the incumbent’s established lead and the district’s structural lean.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
93% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Oui
93% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.**Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a dominant position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, jungle primary.** The seat’s consistent Republican voting patterns, Scalise’s long tenure since 2008, and his role as House Majority Leader support strong name recognition, fundraising, and endorsements that favor a first-round majority.
Recent redistricting after the Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais and the new map signed in May 2026 preserved the district’s partisan balance. Challengers—including Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and Independent Liddy Glass—have not altered the consensus around an outright win. In Louisiana’s majority-vote primary system, traders view an outright victory (avoiding a December 12 runoff) as highly probable given the incumbent’s established lead and the district’s structural lean.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,480Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.**Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a dominant position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, jungle primary.** The seat’s consistent Republican voting patterns, Scalise’s long tenure since 2008, and his role as House Majority Leader support strong name recognition, fundraising, and endorsements that favor a first-round majority.
Recent redistricting after the Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais and the new map signed in May 2026 preserved the district’s partisan balance. Challengers—including Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and Independent Liddy Glass—have not altered the consensus around an outright win. In Louisiana’s majority-vote primary system, traders view an outright victory (avoiding a December 12 runoff) as highly probable given the incumbent’s established lead and the district’s structural lean.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Volume
$1,480Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Incumbent Republican Steve Scalise holds a dominant position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, jungle primary.** The seat’s consistent Republican voting patterns, Scalise’s long tenure since 2008, and his role as House Majority Leader support strong name recognition, fundraising, and endorsements that favor a first-round majority. Recent redistricting after the Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais and the new map signed in May 2026 preserved the district’s partisan balance. Challengers—including Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and Independent Liddy Glass—have not altered the consensus around an outright win. In Louisiana’s majority-vote primary system, traders view an outright victory (avoiding a December 12 runoff) as highly probable given the incumbent’s established lead and the district’s structural lean.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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