Paxton's May 2026 Republican primary runoff victory over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, bolstered by a late Trump endorsement, secured the GOP nomination in a state with a longstanding Republican tilt. This has kept trader consensus modestly favoring Paxton despite recent June polling showing the general election matchup nearly tied or within a few points. Talarico's stronger fundraising edge, over $40 million raised compared to Paxton's roughly $7.6 million, and his messaging centered on Paxton's record have narrowed the gap and sustained Democratic competitiveness. Lingering reluctance among some Cornyn primary voters and potential Libertarian vote-splitting add uncertainty ahead of the November 3 contest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTexas Senate Election Winner
Texas Senate Election Winner
$549,056 Vol.
$549,056 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Ken Paxton (R)
56%
James Talarico (D)
44%
$549,056 Vol.
$549,056 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Ken Paxton (R)
$305,134 Vol.
56%
James Talarico (D)
$243,922 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Paxton's May 2026 Republican primary runoff victory over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, bolstered by a late Trump endorsement, secured the GOP nomination in a state with a longstanding Republican tilt. This has kept trader consensus modestly favoring Paxton despite recent June polling showing the general election matchup nearly tied or within a few points. Talarico's stronger fundraising edge, over $40 million raised compared to Paxton's roughly $7.6 million, and his messaging centered on Paxton's record have narrowed the gap and sustained Democratic competitiveness. Lingering reluctance among some Cornyn primary voters and potential Libertarian vote-splitting add uncertainty ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
Volume
$549,056Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Paxton's May 2026 Republican primary runoff victory over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, bolstered by a late Trump endorsement, secured the GOP nomination in a state with a longstanding Republican tilt. This has kept trader consensus modestly favoring Paxton despite recent June polling showing the general election matchup nearly tied or within a few points. Talarico's stronger fundraising edge, over $40 million raised compared to Paxton's roughly $7.6 million, and his messaging centered on Paxton's record have narrowed the gap and sustained Democratic competitiveness. Lingering reluctance among some Cornyn primary voters and potential Libertarian vote-splitting add uncertainty ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$549,056Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Paxton's May 2026 Republican primary runoff victory over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, bolstered by a late Trump endorsement, secured the GOP nomination in a state with a longstanding Republican tilt. This has kept trader consensus modestly favoring Paxton despite recent June polling showing the general election matchup nearly tied or within a few points. Talarico's stronger fundraising edge, over $40 million raised compared to Paxton's roughly $7.6 million, and his messaging centered on Paxton's record have narrowed the gap and sustained Democratic competitiveness. Lingering reluctance among some Cornyn primary voters and potential Libertarian vote-splitting add uncertainty ahead of the November 3 contest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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