Recent Chinese naval deployments involving the Liaoning carrier group and over 100 vessels across the Western Pacific have been described by Taiwan as area-denial drills potentially rehearsing isolation tactics, yet Beijing has characterized them as annual routine training not targeted at any specific country. These activities, which peaked in early November but remain below prior-year surge levels, occur alongside an upcoming APEC summit featuring a Trump-Xi meeting and Taiwan's local elections, with no full-scale war games near the island since late 2025. Trader consensus at 97.5% against a blockade this year reflects the continuation of gray-zone pressure rather than escalation to sustained commercial disruption, the limited time remaining in 2026, and the absence of triggering diplomatic breakdowns. A sudden shift at the summit or an unplanned incident could still alter the trajectory before year-end.