Opposition parties KMT and TPP, controlling 60 seats in Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan, lack the 76-vote supermajority required to advance an impeachment motion against President Lai Ching-te, driving trader consensus to 98% "No" by June 30. The dispute stems from Lai's refusal to countersign a 2025 fiscal revenue allocation bill, sparking hearings since December that escalated into a second session on May 14 without his attendance. A roll-call vote is set for May 19, but DPP's 51 seats and no reported defections make passage improbable, with any referral to the Constitutional Court unlikely to resolve before the deadline. Only extraordinary cross-party shifts or procedural surprises could alter odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLai Ching-te mis en accusation avant le 30 juin ?
Lai Ching-te mis en accusation avant le 30 juin ?
Oui
$618,585 Vol.
$618,585 Vol.
Oui
$618,585 Vol.
$618,585 Vol.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Opposition parties KMT and TPP, controlling 60 seats in Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan, lack the 76-vote supermajority required to advance an impeachment motion against President Lai Ching-te, driving trader consensus to 98% "No" by June 30. The dispute stems from Lai's refusal to countersign a 2025 fiscal revenue allocation bill, sparking hearings since December that escalated into a second session on May 14 without his attendance. A roll-call vote is set for May 19, but DPP's 51 seats and no reported defections make passage improbable, with any referral to the Constitutional Court unlikely to resolve before the deadline. Only extraordinary cross-party shifts or procedural surprises could alter odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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