Trader consensus at 62% for impeachment before January 2029 centers on the November 2026 midterms and the prospect of Democrats gaining House control. Current Republican majorities have blocked recent resolutions tied to foreign policy actions, including April 2026 Iran-related statements, consistent with historical patterns where unified government limits such proceedings. A House flip would likely trigger investigations and articles of impeachment in 2027-2028, though Senate conviction requires a two-thirds majority that remains a high bar. Democrats have signaled emphasis on oversight of administration-linked entities over immediate impeachment if they win. These dynamics, combined with Trump's public comments on midterm risks, underpin the market pricing while accounting for procedural and electoral uncertainties.