Weekend timing and an absence of major Tesla, SpaceX, or X-related catalysts have anchored trader consensus around the sub-40 and 40-64 tweet buckets for Elon Musk’s August 15–17 activity, with implied probabilities of 63.5% and 36.5% respectively. Historical patterns show reduced posting volume and fewer threaded replies on weekends absent breaking news or product milestones, and current market data reflect a quiet stretch with no viral cultural moments or regulatory developments to accelerate engagement. The short three-day window leaves little runway for a late surge, keeping higher ranges at negligible odds and reinforcing the moderate-range outlook as resolution approaches.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour<40 64%
40-64 36%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$424,239 Vol.
$424,239 Vol.
<40
64%
40-64
36%
65-89
<1%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
<40 64%
40-64 36%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$424,239 Vol.
$424,239 Vol.
<40
64%
40-64
36%
65-89
<1%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Weekend timing and an absence of major Tesla, SpaceX, or X-related catalysts have anchored trader consensus around the sub-40 and 40-64 tweet buckets for Elon Musk’s August 15–17 activity, with implied probabilities of 63.5% and 36.5% respectively. Historical patterns show reduced posting volume and fewer threaded replies on weekends absent breaking news or product milestones, and current market data reflect a quiet stretch with no viral cultural moments or regulatory developments to accelerate engagement. The short three-day window leaves little runway for a late surge, keeping higher ranges at negligible odds and reinforcing the moderate-range outlook as resolution approaches.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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