Les États-Unis confirmeront-ils l'existence d'extraterrestres d'ici... ?
$39,193,815 Vol.
31 mai 2026
31 mai
$4,046,936 Vol.
1%
30 juin
$1,369,863 Vol.
2%
30 septembre
$602,422 Vol.
6%
31 décembre
$29,294,612 Vol.
14%
$39,193,815 Vol.
31 mai
$4,046,936 Vol.
1%
30 juin
$1,369,863 Vol.
2%
30 septembre
$602,422 Vol.
6%
31 décembre
$29,294,612 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent Pentagon declassifications of decades-old UAP files, ordered by President Trump in February and rolled out starting May 8, 2026, have fueled fresh cultural speculation around official extraterrestrial confirmation. The initial tranche on the dedicated government portal features pilot videos, radar data, and astronaut reports but aligns with prior assessments ruling out alien technology or life, leaving traders focused on whether upcoming batches every few weeks could deliver a game-changing statement. This ongoing transparency push taps into long-standing public fascination with disclosure narratives, yet historical patterns show government releases rarely cross the threshold for outright confirmation amid mundane explanations like drones or sensor glitches. With the market’s implied odds reflecting cautious trader consensus, any high-profile announcement before year-end could spark momentum shifts, while continued lack of definitive evidence keeps probabilities modest.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Recent Pentagon declassifications of decades-old UAP files, ordered by President Trump in February and rolled out starting May 8, 2026, have fueled fresh cultural speculation around official extraterrestrial confirmation. The initial tranche on the dedicated government portal features pilot videos, radar data, and astronaut reports but aligns with prior assessments ruling out alien technology or life, leaving traders focused on whether upcoming batches every few weeks could deliver a game-changing statement. This ongoing transparency push taps into long-standing public fascination with disclosure narratives, yet historical patterns show government releases rarely cross the threshold for outright confirmation amid mundane explanations like drones or sensor glitches. With the market’s implied odds reflecting cautious trader consensus, any high-profile announcement before year-end could spark momentum shifts, while continued lack of definitive evidence keeps probabilities modest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
May 7 2026
Pentagon announces rolling release of additional UFO documents
Following the February dump, the Pentagon confirmed it would continue releasing UFO files on a rolling basis, emphasizing ongoing transparency. The announcement tempered earlier excitement, causing a modest decline in market prices as traders reassessed the likelihood of a definitive confirmation.
Apr 30 2026
Pentagon’s anti‑drone laser use triggers FAA airspace shutdown over El Paso
The Pentagon allowed Customs and Border Protection to fire an anti‑drone laser near Fort Bliss without FAA coordination, prompting the FAA to close El Paso airspace for several hours. The incident underscored heightened military activity and raised doubts about imminent UFO disclosures, pushing prices down to single‑digit levels for all contracts.
Apr 18 2026
Pentagon announces upcoming release of 46 UAP videos
December 31 rises to 19%2%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna announced that the Pentagon would release 46 videos of unidentified aerial phenomena, fueling speculation about government transparency on UFOs. This announcement caused a temporary increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, reflecting renewed hopes for official confirmation.
Apr 17 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with no confirmation of alien life
December 31 rises to 21%3%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, but explicitly did not confirm extraterrestrial life. This release sparked public curiosity and a brief increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, but the lack of definitive confirmation led to a subsequent decline.
Apr 10 2026
Pentagon releases new UFO files detailing sightings but no confirmation of alien life
The Pentagon released a batch of declassified UFO files including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, sparking public interest but stopping short of confirming extraterrestrial life. This transparency effort by the Trump administration increased public curiosity but did not provide definitive proof, leading to a modest market reaction with no significant price increase.
Mar 18 2026
Cuban officials present AKM rifles to singer Silvio Rodríguez after anti‑U.S. remarks
December 31 rises to 16%3%
Cuba’s public gifting of military rifles to a prominent artist, following his threats against the United States, heightened geopolitical tension and revived speculation about secret U.S.‑Cuban encounters with unidentified technology, nudging the market upward.
Feb 20 2026
President Trump tweets that UFO disclosures are “coming soon” after Pentagon release
December 31 dips to 14%3%
Following the Pentagon’s file drop, Trump posted on Truth Social that more revelations were imminent, reinforcing market expectations that the government might soon confirm extraterrestrial evidence, driving the price to a peak.
Feb 20 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files, Trump touts transparency
The Pentagon posted 162 previously classified UFO documents on a new website, a move highlighted by President Trump on Truth Social. The unprecedented disclosure revived speculation that the government might soon confirm alien existence, pushing the December‑31 contract up to 23% and lifting other dates as well.
Feb 19 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files amid Trump‑prompted transparency push
December 31 jumps to 17%5%
The Department of Defense made public a trove of declassified UFO videos and reports, a move encouraged by President Trump’s recent social‑media calls for disclosure. Traders saw the unprecedented release as a step toward official acknowledgment, lifting the December‑31 outcome.
Gen. Dan Caine provided a detailed account of the meticulously planned US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro, highlighting extensive intelligence and military coordination. This high-profile event increased attention on US government actions but did not relate directly to alien confirmation, causing minor market fluctuations.
Feb 9 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files, sparking renewed speculation on alien life
The Department of Defense declassified a set of UFO videos and reports, prompting President Trump to tweet about the need for transparency. Traders interpreted the disclosure as a possible step toward an official confirmation, lifting the market’s odds in early February.
Feb 7 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with detailed sightings
December 31 jumps to 17%8%
The Pentagon began releasing a trove of new UFO files including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, sparking renewed public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. This event caused a notable increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, reflecting heightened optimism about a possible official confirmation.
Feb 6 2026
Federal judge restores Pentagon press credentials for major newspapers
A district court ruled that the Pentagon’s new media‑access policy violated First Amendment rights, ordering the reinstatement of credentials for outlets like The New York Times. The decision signaled a potential increase in reporting on classified UFO matters, but also highlighted internal conflicts, causing a modest pullback in market prices to around 9% for all outcomes.
Feb 3 2026
President Trump emphasizes transparency on UFO files and public interpretation
December 31 rises to 12%3%
President Trump publicly highlighted the release of UFO files and encouraged the public to interpret the information themselves, signaling a more open approach to the topic of extraterrestrial life. This statement contributed to increased market confidence in a potential official confirmation by the end of the year.
Jan 20 2026
Republican lawmaker demands release of additional UAP videos
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna publicly urged the Pentagon to release more UAP footage, intensifying congressional pressure for transparency and suggesting a possible forthcoming official acknowledgment before the year’s end, which pushed the December 31 price up further.
Jan 19 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files
December 31 rises to 10%1%
The Pentagon began releasing a new trove of UFO-related documents and videos, with President Trump encouraging the public to draw their own conclusions about the phenomena.
Jan 11 2026
DOJ opens criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
December 31 rises to 9%1%
A Justice Department investigation into Fed Chair Powell raised concerns about political pressure on the central bank, leading some traders to anticipate a possible presidential statement on broader government transparency, including UFO disclosures, which lifted the December 31 contract.
Jan 5 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files sparking public debate
December 31 rises to 7%1%
The Department of Defense disclosed additional declassified UFO documents, highlighting unexplained sightings and prompting media coverage that revived speculation about official acknowledgment of extraterrestrial phenomena, nudging the December 31 outcome higher.
Jan 2 2026
U.S. labor report shows strong hiring, shifting focus away from UFO speculation
The Labor Department reported a surprising gain of 130,000 jobs, drawing media attention to economic news and reducing speculative interest in the alien‑confirmation market, contributing to the price staying low at 7%.
Dec 31 2025
White House press secretary reiterates no official confirmation of alien life
December 31 dips to 7%2%
At a daily briefing, the White House press secretary stated that the administration had no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial existence, dampening hopes of a near‑term confirmation and pushing the market’s probability down to 7%.
Dec 27 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files under Trump administration
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, which sparked public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. However, the files did not provide definitive confirmation of alien existence, leading to a moderate increase in market price for the December 31 outcome.
Dec 8 2025
Republican lawmaker Anna Paulina Luna demands release of additional UAP videos
Rep. Luna’s public demand for the Pentagon to release 46 more UAP videos added pressure on the agency to be more transparent, reinforcing market expectations of a possible official confirmation before year‑end and contributing to the price jump on Dec 8.
Dec 7 2025
Trump administration releases additional UFO files with retro Pentagon website
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
On December 7, 2025, the Pentagon released 162 new UFO-related files on a retro-themed website, including State Department cables, FBI documents, and NASA transcripts. The administration emphasized transparency, but the files did not confirm alien technology. This release caused a peak in market price to 21%, reflecting increased public interest and speculation.
Dec 6 2025
Pentagon releases new UFO files sparking speculation of alien evidence
December 31 dips to 9%4%
The Department of Defense declassified a set of videos and reports on unidentified aerial phenomena, prompting media outlets to highlight the possibility of official acknowledgment and pushing the market’s Yes price up from 13% to 9% as traders priced in a higher chance of a December‑31 confirmation.
Dec 6 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of declassified UFO files
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The Pentagon made public a new set of UAP videos and reports, including historic sightings, intensifying speculation that the agency might soon acknowledge extraterrestrial technology, which pushed the market’s Yes price for the December‑31 outcome upward.
Dec 5 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files amid Trump’s push for transparency
The Department of Defense declassified a set of videos and reports on unidentified aerial phenomena, reigniting speculation about alien technology. Traders saw the release as a curiosity‑driven event rather than a confirmation, keeping the market’s odds steady around 10%.
Dec 4 2025
President Trump teases major UFO document dump on Truth Social
December 31 rises to 10%2%
Trump posted on Truth Social that he would soon release a large trove of UFO records, reviving public and congressional pressure for official disclosure and raising expectations that the government might confirm alien existence before Dec 31.
Nov 29 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with detailed sightings
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
The Pentagon began releasing a trove of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unusual aerial phenomena, which reignited public and market interest in the possibility of extraterrestrial life. Former President Trump highlighted the release, encouraging public scrutiny and speculation, which likely caused the market price to rise sharply around this date.
Nov 28 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files revealing unusual sightings
December 31 rises to 11%4%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files detailing numerous sightings of unidentified aerial phenomena, including erratic maneuvers and bright orbs, sparking public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. This release, encouraged by former President Trump, increased market optimism about a possible official confirmation by December 31, 2026, causing the price for that outcome to rise from 7% to 11%.
Nov 28 2025
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files, Trump encourages public to draw conclusions
December 31 rises to 11%4%
On November 28, 2025, the Pentagon started releasing a new batch of UFO files including videos, imagery, and testimonies about unidentified anomalous phenomena. President Trump highlighted the release, emphasizing transparency and inviting the public to interpret the information themselves. This event caused a significant price increase in the market, reflecting heightened speculation about possible confirmation of alien existence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent Pentagon declassifications of decades-old UAP files, ordered by President Trump in February and rolled out starting May 8, 2026, have fueled fresh cultural speculation around official extraterrestrial confirmation. The initial tranche on the dedicated government portal features pilot videos, radar data, and astronaut reports but aligns with prior assessments ruling out alien technology or life, leaving traders focused on whether upcoming batches every few weeks could deliver a game-changing statement. This ongoing transparency push taps into long-standing public fascination with disclosure narratives, yet historical patterns show government releases rarely cross the threshold for outright confirmation amid mundane explanations like drones or sensor glitches. With the market’s implied odds reflecting cautious trader consensus, any high-profile announcement before year-end could spark momentum shifts, while continued lack of definitive evidence keeps probabilities modest.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Recent Pentagon declassifications of decades-old UAP files, ordered by President Trump in February and rolled out starting May 8, 2026, have fueled fresh cultural speculation around official extraterrestrial confirmation. The initial tranche on the dedicated government portal features pilot videos, radar data, and astronaut reports but aligns with prior assessments ruling out alien technology or life, leaving traders focused on whether upcoming batches every few weeks could deliver a game-changing statement. This ongoing transparency push taps into long-standing public fascination with disclosure narratives, yet historical patterns show government releases rarely cross the threshold for outright confirmation amid mundane explanations like drones or sensor glitches. With the market’s implied odds reflecting cautious trader consensus, any high-profile announcement before year-end could spark momentum shifts, while continued lack of definitive evidence keeps probabilities modest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
May 7 2026
Pentagon announces rolling release of additional UFO documents
Following the February dump, the Pentagon confirmed it would continue releasing UFO files on a rolling basis, emphasizing ongoing transparency. The announcement tempered earlier excitement, causing a modest decline in market prices as traders reassessed the likelihood of a definitive confirmation.
Apr 30 2026
Pentagon’s anti‑drone laser use triggers FAA airspace shutdown over El Paso
The Pentagon allowed Customs and Border Protection to fire an anti‑drone laser near Fort Bliss without FAA coordination, prompting the FAA to close El Paso airspace for several hours. The incident underscored heightened military activity and raised doubts about imminent UFO disclosures, pushing prices down to single‑digit levels for all contracts.
Apr 18 2026
Pentagon announces upcoming release of 46 UAP videos
December 31 rises to 19%2%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna announced that the Pentagon would release 46 videos of unidentified aerial phenomena, fueling speculation about government transparency on UFOs. This announcement caused a temporary increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, reflecting renewed hopes for official confirmation.
Apr 17 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with no confirmation of alien life
December 31 rises to 21%3%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, but explicitly did not confirm extraterrestrial life. This release sparked public curiosity and a brief increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, but the lack of definitive confirmation led to a subsequent decline.
Apr 10 2026
Pentagon releases new UFO files detailing sightings but no confirmation of alien life
The Pentagon released a batch of declassified UFO files including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, sparking public interest but stopping short of confirming extraterrestrial life. This transparency effort by the Trump administration increased public curiosity but did not provide definitive proof, leading to a modest market reaction with no significant price increase.
Mar 18 2026
Cuban officials present AKM rifles to singer Silvio Rodríguez after anti‑U.S. remarks
December 31 rises to 16%3%
Cuba’s public gifting of military rifles to a prominent artist, following his threats against the United States, heightened geopolitical tension and revived speculation about secret U.S.‑Cuban encounters with unidentified technology, nudging the market upward.
Feb 20 2026
President Trump tweets that UFO disclosures are “coming soon” after Pentagon release
December 31 dips to 14%3%
Following the Pentagon’s file drop, Trump posted on Truth Social that more revelations were imminent, reinforcing market expectations that the government might soon confirm extraterrestrial evidence, driving the price to a peak.
Feb 20 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files, Trump touts transparency
The Pentagon posted 162 previously classified UFO documents on a new website, a move highlighted by President Trump on Truth Social. The unprecedented disclosure revived speculation that the government might soon confirm alien existence, pushing the December‑31 contract up to 23% and lifting other dates as well.
Feb 19 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files amid Trump‑prompted transparency push
December 31 jumps to 17%5%
The Department of Defense made public a trove of declassified UFO videos and reports, a move encouraged by President Trump’s recent social‑media calls for disclosure. Traders saw the unprecedented release as a step toward official acknowledgment, lifting the December‑31 outcome.
Gen. Dan Caine provided a detailed account of the meticulously planned US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro, highlighting extensive intelligence and military coordination. This high-profile event increased attention on US government actions but did not relate directly to alien confirmation, causing minor market fluctuations.
Feb 9 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files, sparking renewed speculation on alien life
The Department of Defense declassified a set of UFO videos and reports, prompting President Trump to tweet about the need for transparency. Traders interpreted the disclosure as a possible step toward an official confirmation, lifting the market’s odds in early February.
Feb 7 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with detailed sightings
December 31 jumps to 17%8%
The Pentagon began releasing a trove of new UFO files including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, sparking renewed public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. This event caused a notable increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, reflecting heightened optimism about a possible official confirmation.
Feb 6 2026
Federal judge restores Pentagon press credentials for major newspapers
A district court ruled that the Pentagon’s new media‑access policy violated First Amendment rights, ordering the reinstatement of credentials for outlets like The New York Times. The decision signaled a potential increase in reporting on classified UFO matters, but also highlighted internal conflicts, causing a modest pullback in market prices to around 9% for all outcomes.
Feb 3 2026
President Trump emphasizes transparency on UFO files and public interpretation
December 31 rises to 12%3%
President Trump publicly highlighted the release of UFO files and encouraged the public to interpret the information themselves, signaling a more open approach to the topic of extraterrestrial life. This statement contributed to increased market confidence in a potential official confirmation by the end of the year.
Jan 20 2026
Republican lawmaker demands release of additional UAP videos
December 31 rises to 10%1%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna publicly urged the Pentagon to release more UAP footage, intensifying congressional pressure for transparency and suggesting a possible forthcoming official acknowledgment before the year’s end, which pushed the December 31 price up further.
Jan 19 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files
December 31 rises to 10%1%
The Pentagon began releasing a new trove of UFO-related documents and videos, with President Trump encouraging the public to draw their own conclusions about the phenomena.
Jan 11 2026
DOJ opens criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
December 31 rises to 9%1%
A Justice Department investigation into Fed Chair Powell raised concerns about political pressure on the central bank, leading some traders to anticipate a possible presidential statement on broader government transparency, including UFO disclosures, which lifted the December 31 contract.
Jan 5 2026
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files sparking public debate
December 31 rises to 7%1%
The Department of Defense disclosed additional declassified UFO documents, highlighting unexplained sightings and prompting media coverage that revived speculation about official acknowledgment of extraterrestrial phenomena, nudging the December 31 outcome higher.
Jan 2 2026
U.S. labor report shows strong hiring, shifting focus away from UFO speculation
The Labor Department reported a surprising gain of 130,000 jobs, drawing media attention to economic news and reducing speculative interest in the alien‑confirmation market, contributing to the price staying low at 7%.
Dec 31 2025
White House press secretary reiterates no official confirmation of alien life
December 31 dips to 7%2%
At a daily briefing, the White House press secretary stated that the administration had no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial existence, dampening hopes of a near‑term confirmation and pushing the market’s probability down to 7%.
Dec 27 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files under Trump administration
December 31 rises to 12%2%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, which sparked public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. However, the files did not provide definitive confirmation of alien existence, leading to a moderate increase in market price for the December 31 outcome.
Dec 8 2025
Republican lawmaker Anna Paulina Luna demands release of additional UAP videos
Rep. Luna’s public demand for the Pentagon to release 46 more UAP videos added pressure on the agency to be more transparent, reinforcing market expectations of a possible official confirmation before year‑end and contributing to the price jump on Dec 8.
Dec 7 2025
Trump administration releases additional UFO files with retro Pentagon website
December 31 jumps to 21%11%
On December 7, 2025, the Pentagon released 162 new UFO-related files on a retro-themed website, including State Department cables, FBI documents, and NASA transcripts. The administration emphasized transparency, but the files did not confirm alien technology. This release caused a peak in market price to 21%, reflecting increased public interest and speculation.
Dec 6 2025
Pentagon releases new UFO files sparking speculation of alien evidence
December 31 dips to 9%4%
The Department of Defense declassified a set of videos and reports on unidentified aerial phenomena, prompting media outlets to highlight the possibility of official acknowledgment and pushing the market’s Yes price up from 13% to 9% as traders priced in a higher chance of a December‑31 confirmation.
Dec 6 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of declassified UFO files
December 31 rises to 12%3%
The Pentagon made public a new set of UAP videos and reports, including historic sightings, intensifying speculation that the agency might soon acknowledge extraterrestrial technology, which pushed the market’s Yes price for the December‑31 outcome upward.
Dec 5 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files amid Trump’s push for transparency
The Department of Defense declassified a set of videos and reports on unidentified aerial phenomena, reigniting speculation about alien technology. Traders saw the release as a curiosity‑driven event rather than a confirmation, keeping the market’s odds steady around 10%.
Dec 4 2025
President Trump teases major UFO document dump on Truth Social
December 31 rises to 10%2%
Trump posted on Truth Social that he would soon release a large trove of UFO records, reviving public and congressional pressure for official disclosure and raising expectations that the government might confirm alien existence before Dec 31.
Nov 29 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with detailed sightings
December 31 jumps to 13%6%
The Pentagon began releasing a trove of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unusual aerial phenomena, which reignited public and market interest in the possibility of extraterrestrial life. Former President Trump highlighted the release, encouraging public scrutiny and speculation, which likely caused the market price to rise sharply around this date.
Nov 28 2025
Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files revealing unusual sightings
December 31 rises to 11%4%
The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files detailing numerous sightings of unidentified aerial phenomena, including erratic maneuvers and bright orbs, sparking public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. This release, encouraged by former President Trump, increased market optimism about a possible official confirmation by December 31, 2026, causing the price for that outcome to rise from 7% to 11%.
Nov 28 2025
Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files, Trump encourages public to draw conclusions
December 31 rises to 11%4%
On November 28, 2025, the Pentagon started releasing a new batch of UFO files including videos, imagery, and testimonies about unidentified anomalous phenomena. President Trump highlighted the release, emphasizing transparency and inviting the public to interpret the information themselves. This event caused a significant price increase in the market, reflecting heightened speculation about possible confirmation of alien existence.
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Questions fréquentes
« Les États-Unis confirmeront-ils l'existence d'extraterrestres d'ici... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre » à 14%, suivi de « 30 septembre » à 6%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 14¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.
À ce jour, « Les États-Unis confirmeront-ils l'existence d'extraterrestres d'ici... ? » a généré $39.2 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 25, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.
Pour trader sur « Les États-Unis confirmeront-ils l'existence d'extraterrestres d'ici... ? », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.
Le favori actuel pour « Les États-Unis confirmeront-ils l'existence d'extraterrestres d'ici... ? » est « 31 décembre » à 14%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 30 septembre » à 6%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.
Les règles de résolution de « Les États-Unis confirmeront-ils l'existence d'extraterrestres d'ici... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.
Oui. Vous n'avez pas besoin de trader pour rester informé. Cette page sert de suivi en direct pour « Les États-Unis confirmeront-ils l'existence d'extraterrestres d'ici... ? ». Les probabilités des résultats sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que de nouvelles transactions arrivent. Vous pouvez ajouter cette page à vos favoris et consulter la section commentaires pour voir ce que disent les autres traders. Vous pouvez également utiliser les filtres de plage temporelle sur le graphique pour voir comment les cotes ont évolué au fil du temps.
Les cotes de Polymarket sont fixées par de vrais traders qui mettent de l'argent réel derrière leurs convictions, ce qui tend à produire des prédictions précises. Avec $39.2 million échangés sur « Les États-Unis confirmeront-ils l'existence d'extraterrestres d'ici... ? », ces prix agrègent les connaissances collectives et la conviction de milliers de participants — surpassant souvent les sondages, les prévisions d’experts et les enquêtes traditionnelles. Les marchés de prédiction comme Polymarket ont un solide historique de précision, surtout à mesure que les événements approchent de leur date de résolution. Par exemple, Polymarket a un score de précision sur un mois de 94%. Pour les dernières statistiques sur la précision des prédictions de Polymarket, visitez la page de précision sur Polymarket.
Pour placer votre première transaction sur « Les États-Unis confirmeront-ils l'existence d'extraterrestres d'ici... ? », inscrivez-vous pour un compte Polymarket gratuit et approvisionnez-le en utilisant des cryptomonnaies, une carte de crédit ou débit, ou un virement bancaire. Une fois votre compte approvisionné, revenez sur cette page, sélectionnez le résultat sur lequel vous souhaitez trader, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous êtes nouveau dans les marchés de prédiction, cliquez sur le lien « Comment ça marche » en haut de n'importe quelle page Polymarket pour un guide étape par étape.
Sur Polymarket, le prix de chaque résultat représente la probabilité implicite du marché. Un prix de 14¢ pour « 31 décembre » sur le marché « Les États-Unis confirmeront-ils l'existence d'extraterrestres d'ici... ? » signifie que les traders estiment collectivement qu'il y a environ une probabilité de 14% que « 31 décembre » sera le résultat correct. Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » à 14¢ et que le résultat est correct, vous recevez $1,00 par part — un gain de 86¢ par part. S'il est incorrect, ces parts valent $0.
Le marché « Les États-Unis confirmeront-ils l'existence d'extraterrestres d'ici... ? » est prévu pour être résolu autour du Dec 31, 2026. Cela signifie que le trading restera ouvert et les cotes continueront d'évoluer jusqu'à cette date. Le moment exact de la résolution dépend de la disponibilité du résultat officiel, comme décrit dans la section « Règles ».
Le marché « Les États-Unis confirmeront-ils l'existence d'extraterrestres d'ici... ? » a une communauté active de 1,255 commentaires où les traders partagent leurs analyses, débattent des résultats et discutent des derniers développements. Faites défiler jusqu'à la section commentaires ci-dessous pour lire ce que pensent les autres participants. Vous pouvez également filtrer par « Principaux détenteurs » ou consulter l'onglet « Activité » pour un flux en temps réel des transactions.
Polymarket est le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde, où vous pouvez rester informé et profiter de vos connaissances sur les événements du monde réel. Les traders achètent et vendent des parts sur des résultats allant de la politique et des élections aux cryptomonnaies, finances, sports, technologie et culture, y compris des marchés comme « Les États-Unis confirmeront-ils l'existence d'extraterrestres d'ici... ? ». Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel soutenues par une conviction financière, fournissant souvent des signaux plus rapides et plus précis que les sondages, les commentateurs ou les enquêtes traditionnelles.
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