SpaceX maintains a rapid launch cadence in 2026, with approximately 60 orbital missions completed by mid-May, primarily Falcon 9 vehicles deploying Starlink satellites alongside government payloads. Company targets exceed 150 missions annually, driven by reusable booster performance and expanded Vandenberg approvals for up to 100 Falcon launches from California sites. Projections center near 160 total flights as Starship Version 3 testing advances, with FAA caps permitting 25 Starship missions yearly at Starbase and new Florida pads potentially adding capacity by late year. Market-implied odds favor the 140–179 range due to Falcon reliability and Starlink demand, though delays in Starship reuse cycles or regulatory hurdles could shift outcomes toward lower bins. New model runs and launch manifests will clarify whether Starship contributes 8–20 additional flights.