NASA's February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program, shifting the first crewed lunar landing from Artemis III to Artemis IV in 2028, combined with the successful April 2026 Artemis II flyby that tested Orion systems without a surface mission, has anchored trader consensus around a near-certain "No" outcome. With only months remaining before year-end and no alternative crewed vehicles from NASA, SpaceX, or international partners certified for a 2026 landing attempt, the 98.9% implied probability reflects verified schedule slips in Starship and Blue Moon lander development alongside China's 2030 target. While an unforeseen private-sector breakthrough or regulatory fast-track remains theoretically possible, current hardware readiness and launch manifest realities make such shifts improbable before December.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$1,967,124 Vol.
$1,967,124 Vol.
Oui
$1,967,124 Vol.
$1,967,124 Vol.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program, shifting the first crewed lunar landing from Artemis III to Artemis IV in 2028, combined with the successful April 2026 Artemis II flyby that tested Orion systems without a surface mission, has anchored trader consensus around a near-certain "No" outcome. With only months remaining before year-end and no alternative crewed vehicles from NASA, SpaceX, or international partners certified for a 2026 landing attempt, the 98.9% implied probability reflects verified schedule slips in Starship and Blue Moon lander development alongside China's 2030 target. While an unforeseen private-sector breakthrough or regulatory fast-track remains theoretically possible, current hardware readiness and launch manifest realities make such shifts improbable before December.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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