The strong market consensus favoring "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems from the documented global recurrence interval of such megathrust events, which average once every 10–20 years based on USGS and historical seismic catalogs. The last confirmed 9.0+ quake occurred in 2011 off Tohoku, Japan, and current strain accumulation along major subduction zones shows no accelerated slip rates or widespread foreshock sequences that would signal an imminent rupture. While realistic scenarios like sudden failure along the Cascadia or Chilean trenches could still produce a great earthquake within the window, the absence of elevated seismic activity or geodetic precursors in real-time monitoring keeps the implied probability heavily weighted toward no such event materializing.