Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows M6.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly 15–20 events per year worldwide, or about 0.3–0.4 per week, driven by tectonic plate motions along subduction zones and transform faults. Recent activity, including a M7.4 event in Colombia on August 10 and a M6.0 in the South Sandwich Islands on August 12, illustrates clustering potential but does not alter the baseline Poisson-like distribution for the August 17–23 window. Market-implied odds favoring zero or one event reflect this inherent variability, model uncertainties in short-term forecasting, and the absence of elevated aftershock sequences or unusual strain indicators in major seismic zones.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus entre le 17 et le 23 août ?
Combien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus entre le 17 et le 23 août ?
0 42%
1 37%
2 18%
3 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
23 août 2026
0
42%
1
37%
2
18%
3
9%
4
4%
5
4%
>5
1%
0 42%
1 37%
2 18%
3 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
23 août 2026
0
$82 Vol.
42%
1
$45 Vol.
37%
2
$84 Vol.
18%
3
$96 Vol.
9%
4
$114 Vol.
4%
5
$78 Vol.
4%
>5
$21 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows M6.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly 15–20 events per year worldwide, or about 0.3–0.4 per week, driven by tectonic plate motions along subduction zones and transform faults. Recent activity, including a M7.4 event in Colombia on August 10 and a M6.0 in the South Sandwich Islands on August 12, illustrates clustering potential but does not alter the baseline Poisson-like distribution for the August 17–23 window. Market-implied odds favoring zero or one event reflect this inherent variability, model uncertainties in short-term forecasting, and the absence of elevated aftershock sequences or unusual strain indicators in major seismic zones.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$521Date de fin
24 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows M6.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly 15–20 events per year worldwide, or about 0.3–0.4 per week, driven by tectonic plate motions along subduction zones and transform faults. Recent activity, including a M7.4 event in Colombia on August 10 and a M6.0 in the South Sandwich Islands on August 12, illustrates clustering potential but does not alter the baseline Poisson-like distribution for the August 17–23 window. Market-implied odds favoring zero or one event reflect this inherent variability, model uncertainties in short-term forecasting, and the absence of elevated aftershock sequences or unusual strain indicators in major seismic zones.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$521Date de fin
24 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows M6.5+ earthquakes occur at an average rate of roughly 15–20 events per year worldwide, or about 0.3–0.4 per week, driven by tectonic plate motions along subduction zones and transform faults. Recent activity, including a M7.4 event in Colombia on August 10 and a M6.0 in the South Sandwich Islands on August 12, illustrates clustering potential but does not alter the baseline Poisson-like distribution for the August 17–23 window. Market-implied odds favoring zero or one event reflect this inherent variability, model uncertainties in short-term forecasting, and the absence of elevated aftershock sequences or unusual strain indicators in major seismic zones.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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