Major VEI ≥6 eruptions occur infrequently on geological timescales, with only a handful documented in the past two centuries, the most recent being Mount Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-August 2026, global monitoring networks including USGS and Smithsonian Institution reports show no volcanoes exhibiting the sustained precursory activity—such as rapid magma chamber inflation, extreme seismicity swarms, or deformation rates—necessary for a Plinian-style event capable of reaching VEI 6 thresholds. This lack of signals, alongside the low annual baseline rate of roughly 0.1–0.5 such eruptions worldwide, underpins the 93.6% market-implied probability for no occurrence this year. While sudden unrest at caldera systems like Yellowstone or Campi Flegrei could theoretically escalate, current deformation and gas emission data indicate no near-term trajectory toward that scale.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉruption volcanique majeure (VEI ≥6) en 2026 ?
Éruption volcanique majeure (VEI ≥6) en 2026 ?
Oui
6% chance
$127,900 Vol.
$127,900 Vol.
31 mars 2027
Oui
6% chance
$127,900 Vol.
$127,900 Vol.
31 mars 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Major VEI ≥6 eruptions occur infrequently on geological timescales, with only a handful documented in the past two centuries, the most recent being Mount Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-August 2026, global monitoring networks including USGS and Smithsonian Institution reports show no volcanoes exhibiting the sustained precursory activity—such as rapid magma chamber inflation, extreme seismicity swarms, or deformation rates—necessary for a Plinian-style event capable of reaching VEI 6 thresholds. This lack of signals, alongside the low annual baseline rate of roughly 0.1–0.5 such eruptions worldwide, underpins the 93.6% market-implied probability for no occurrence this year. While sudden unrest at caldera systems like Yellowstone or Campi Flegrei could theoretically escalate, current deformation and gas emission data indicate no near-term trajectory toward that scale.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$127,900Date de fin
31 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Major VEI ≥6 eruptions occur infrequently on geological timescales, with only a handful documented in the past two centuries, the most recent being Mount Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-August 2026, global monitoring networks including USGS and Smithsonian Institution reports show no volcanoes exhibiting the sustained precursory activity—such as rapid magma chamber inflation, extreme seismicity swarms, or deformation rates—necessary for a Plinian-style event capable of reaching VEI 6 thresholds. This lack of signals, alongside the low annual baseline rate of roughly 0.1–0.5 such eruptions worldwide, underpins the 93.6% market-implied probability for no occurrence this year. While sudden unrest at caldera systems like Yellowstone or Campi Flegrei could theoretically escalate, current deformation and gas emission data indicate no near-term trajectory toward that scale.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$127,900Date de fin
31 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Major VEI ≥6 eruptions occur infrequently on geological timescales, with only a handful documented in the past two centuries, the most recent being Mount Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-August 2026, global monitoring networks including USGS and Smithsonian Institution reports show no volcanoes exhibiting the sustained precursory activity—such as rapid magma chamber inflation, extreme seismicity swarms, or deformation rates—necessary for a Plinian-style event capable of reaching VEI 6 thresholds. This lack of signals, alongside the low annual baseline rate of roughly 0.1–0.5 such eruptions worldwide, underpins the 93.6% market-implied probability for no occurrence this year. While sudden unrest at caldera systems like Yellowstone or Campi Flegrei could theoretically escalate, current deformation and gas emission data indicate no near-term trajectory toward that scale.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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