Global seismic activity this week has centered on subduction zones across the Pacific Ring of Fire, with plate-boundary strain release in the Philippines, Tonga, and Solomon Islands regions generating multiple magnitude 5.5+ events through May 16. Official USGS data show moderate daily counts of M5.0–5.9 offshore shocks, consistent with background rates but locally elevated by aftershock sequences following the early-May M6.0 near Nena, Philippines. Trader consensus splitting between six and seven quakes reflects the narrow statistical range for typical seven-day tallies, with the outcome hinging on whether new ruptures or aftershocks push the final count above or below the midpoint before the May 17 close. Inherent variability in magnitude reporting and detection thresholds for distant events keeps probabilities closely matched.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
7 29.1%
6 25%
8 21.4%
>9 8.4%
$104,282 Vol.
$104,282 Vol.
≤3
1%
4
1%
5
1%
6
25%
7
29%
8
15%
9
7%
>9
8%
7 29.1%
6 25%
8 21.4%
>9 8.4%
$104,282 Vol.
$104,282 Vol.
≤3
1%
4
1%
5
1%
6
25%
7
29%
8
15%
9
7%
>9
8%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic activity this week has centered on subduction zones across the Pacific Ring of Fire, with plate-boundary strain release in the Philippines, Tonga, and Solomon Islands regions generating multiple magnitude 5.5+ events through May 16. Official USGS data show moderate daily counts of M5.0–5.9 offshore shocks, consistent with background rates but locally elevated by aftershock sequences following the early-May M6.0 near Nena, Philippines. Trader consensus splitting between six and seven quakes reflects the narrow statistical range for typical seven-day tallies, with the outcome hinging on whether new ruptures or aftershocks push the final count above or below the midpoint before the May 17 close. Inherent variability in magnitude reporting and detection thresholds for distant events keeps probabilities closely matched.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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