Recent CDC provisional data for 2025 showed the U.S. general fertility rate sliding another 1% to a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44, extending a decline that began in 2007 and accelerated among younger women. This long-running trend, fueled by delayed childbearing, lower teen birth rates, and shifting cultural attitudes toward family formation, underpins trader sentiment favoring “No” at 53% for a Q1 2026 uptick. With the market closely balanced, attention now turns to the next CDC quarterly release, which could reveal whether early-2026 numbers break the pattern or simply reflect seasonal variation. Any surprise rebound in births or revised methodology would quickly shift momentum.