Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 59.5 percent, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 thresholds require at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers, criteria met only rarely with a historical global average of roughly 0.6 events per year. Recent weekly reports document elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none yet producing sufficient ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge at monitored systems remains the primary variable that could alter odds if escalation occurs before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de grandes éruptions volcaniques (VEI ≥4) en 2026 ?
Combien de grandes éruptions volcaniques (VEI ≥4) en 2026 ?
0 60%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.1%
$1,078,726 Vol.
$1,078,726 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0
60%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 60%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.1%
$1,078,726 Vol.
$1,078,726 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0
$477,303 Vol.
60%
1
$260,191 Vol.
35%
2
$32,241 Vol.
4%
3
$26,240 Vol.
1%
4
$24,441 Vol.
<1%
5+
$258,475 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 59.5 percent, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 thresholds require at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers, criteria met only rarely with a historical global average of roughly 0.6 events per year. Recent weekly reports document elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none yet producing sufficient ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge at monitored systems remains the primary variable that could alter odds if escalation occurs before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,078,726Date de fin
31 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 59.5 percent, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 thresholds require at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers, criteria met only rarely with a historical global average of roughly 0.6 events per year. Recent weekly reports document elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none yet producing sufficient ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge at monitored systems remains the primary variable that could alter odds if escalation occurs before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,078,726Date de fin
31 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 59.5 percent, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 thresholds require at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers, criteria met only rarely with a historical global average of roughly 0.6 events per year. Recent weekly reports document elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none yet producing sufficient ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge at monitored systems remains the primary variable that could alter odds if escalation occurs before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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