The market-implied probability of zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 stands at 58.5% primarily because such large explosive events remain infrequent on annual timescales, with Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records showing steady but low historical rates for VEI 4 and higher. Through mid-August 2026, official weekly and daily reports document dozens of continuing or new eruptions worldwide, yet none have reached VEI 4 thresholds based on plume height, ejecta volume, or explosivity criteria. Ongoing USGS and Smithsonian monitoring indicates typical background activity at volcanoes like Kīlauea without signs of rapid escalation toward major events. Trader consensus reflects this pattern and the limited remaining months for a significant shift, though model uncertainties in magma dynamics and sudden unrest could still alter outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de grandes éruptions volcaniques (VEI ≥4) en 2026 ?
Combien de grandes éruptions volcaniques (VEI ≥4) en 2026 ?
0 67%
1 20%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,063 Vol.
$1,156,063 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0
60%
1
20%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 67%
1 20%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,063 Vol.
$1,156,063 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0
$499,082 Vol.
60%
1
$273,925 Vol.
20%
2
$40,872 Vol.
4%
3
$31,654 Vol.
1%
4
$35,005 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,525 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The market-implied probability of zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 stands at 58.5% primarily because such large explosive events remain infrequent on annual timescales, with Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records showing steady but low historical rates for VEI 4 and higher. Through mid-August 2026, official weekly and daily reports document dozens of continuing or new eruptions worldwide, yet none have reached VEI 4 thresholds based on plume height, ejecta volume, or explosivity criteria. Ongoing USGS and Smithsonian monitoring indicates typical background activity at volcanoes like Kīlauea without signs of rapid escalation toward major events. Trader consensus reflects this pattern and the limited remaining months for a significant shift, though model uncertainties in magma dynamics and sudden unrest could still alter outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,156,063Date de fin
31 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The market-implied probability of zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 stands at 58.5% primarily because such large explosive events remain infrequent on annual timescales, with Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records showing steady but low historical rates for VEI 4 and higher. Through mid-August 2026, official weekly and daily reports document dozens of continuing or new eruptions worldwide, yet none have reached VEI 4 thresholds based on plume height, ejecta volume, or explosivity criteria. Ongoing USGS and Smithsonian monitoring indicates typical background activity at volcanoes like Kīlauea without signs of rapid escalation toward major events. Trader consensus reflects this pattern and the limited remaining months for a significant shift, though model uncertainties in magma dynamics and sudden unrest could still alter outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,156,063Date de fin
31 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market-implied probability of zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 stands at 58.5% primarily because such large explosive events remain infrequent on annual timescales, with Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records showing steady but low historical rates for VEI 4 and higher. Through mid-August 2026, official weekly and daily reports document dozens of continuing or new eruptions worldwide, yet none have reached VEI 4 thresholds based on plume height, ejecta volume, or explosivity criteria. Ongoing USGS and Smithsonian monitoring indicates typical background activity at volcanoes like Kīlauea without signs of rapid escalation toward major events. Trader consensus reflects this pattern and the limited remaining months for a significant shift, though model uncertainties in magma dynamics and sudden unrest could still alter outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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