Elevated preliminary tornado reports through mid-May 2026, already exceeding 620 according to Storm Prediction Center data, form the main catalyst pushing trader consensus toward a 1250+ total for the year. An unusually active January–March period produced 280 confirmed tornadoes, 80 percent above the 1991–2020 average, followed by multiple April outbreaks including a significant event on the 17th across the Upper Midwest. These early-season counts, driven by persistent atmospheric instability, strong wind shear, and Gulf moisture, align with historical patterns that often sustain elevated activity through the May–June peak. With La Niña conditions rapidly transitioning and an El Niño watch in place, models currently favor near- or slightly above-average annual totals, though further outbreaks before summer could reinforce the market’s heavy weighting on the 1250+ outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tornades aux États-Unis en 2026 ?
Combien de tornades aux États-Unis en 2026 ?
1250+ 77%
1200–1249 21.6%
1150–1199 5.0%
<950 4.5%
$71,989 Vol.
$71,989 Vol.
10 janv. 2027
<950
5%
950–999
3%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
4%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
5%
1200–1249
22%
1250+
77%
1250+ 77%
1200–1249 21.6%
1150–1199 5.0%
<950 4.5%
$71,989 Vol.
$71,989 Vol.
10 janv. 2027
<950
$22,427 Vol.
5%
950–999
$2,966 Vol.
3%
1000–1049
$2,424 Vol.
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 Vol.
4%
1100–1149
$2,041 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$2,452 Vol.
5%
1200–1249
$15,173 Vol.
22%
1250+
$16,666 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated preliminary tornado reports through mid-May 2026, already exceeding 620 according to Storm Prediction Center data, form the main catalyst pushing trader consensus toward a 1250+ total for the year. An unusually active January–March period produced 280 confirmed tornadoes, 80 percent above the 1991–2020 average, followed by multiple April outbreaks including a significant event on the 17th across the Upper Midwest. These early-season counts, driven by persistent atmospheric instability, strong wind shear, and Gulf moisture, align with historical patterns that often sustain elevated activity through the May–June peak. With La Niña conditions rapidly transitioning and an El Niño watch in place, models currently favor near- or slightly above-average annual totals, though further outbreaks before summer could reinforce the market’s heavy weighting on the 1250+ outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$71,989Date de fin
10 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated preliminary tornado reports through mid-May 2026, already exceeding 620 according to Storm Prediction Center data, form the main catalyst pushing trader consensus toward a 1250+ total for the year. An unusually active January–March period produced 280 confirmed tornadoes, 80 percent above the 1991–2020 average, followed by multiple April outbreaks including a significant event on the 17th across the Upper Midwest. These early-season counts, driven by persistent atmospheric instability, strong wind shear, and Gulf moisture, align with historical patterns that often sustain elevated activity through the May–June peak. With La Niña conditions rapidly transitioning and an El Niño watch in place, models currently favor near- or slightly above-average annual totals, though further outbreaks before summer could reinforce the market’s heavy weighting on the 1250+ outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$71,989Date de fin
10 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated preliminary tornado reports through mid-May 2026, already exceeding 620 according to Storm Prediction Center data, form the main catalyst pushing trader consensus toward a 1250+ total for the year. An unusually active January–March period produced 280 confirmed tornadoes, 80 percent above the 1991–2020 average, followed by multiple April outbreaks including a significant event on the 17th across the Upper Midwest. These early-season counts, driven by persistent atmospheric instability, strong wind shear, and Gulf moisture, align with historical patterns that often sustain elevated activity through the May–June peak. With La Niña conditions rapidly transitioning and an El Niño watch in place, models currently favor near- or slightly above-average annual totals, though further outbreaks before summer could reinforce the market’s heavy weighting on the 1250+ outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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