Current El Niño conditions, now established and strengthening toward an OND peak, represent the dominant factor suppressing U.S. tornado activity in August 2026 relative to climatology. NOAA data place the 1991–2020 August average at 81 confirmed tornadoes, with El Niño episodes typically reducing counts through altered jet stream patterns and lower convective available potential energy across the Great Plains and Midwest. Trader consensus at 50% across sub-170 buckets, versus just 4% for 170+, aligns with this signal and recent below-average months like August 2025 (42 reports). Short-term model runs and MJO influences introduce modest uncertainty around the 40–99 range, but no major pattern shifts are anticipated before the month begins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tornades aux États-Unis en août 2026 ?
Combien de tornades aux États-Unis en août 2026 ?
60-79 17%
40–59 16%
<40 15%
200+ 13.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
<40
16%
40–59
14%
60-79
25%
80-99
24%
100–119
25%
120–139
10%
140-169
16%
170–199
9%
200+
13%
60-79 17%
40–59 16%
<40 15%
200+ 13.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
<40
$52 Vol.
16%
40–59
$85 Vol.
14%
60-79
$60 Vol.
25%
80-99
$52 Vol.
24%
100–119
$52 Vol.
25%
120–139
$52 Vol.
10%
140-169
$52 Vol.
16%
170–199
$14 Vol.
9%
200+
$113 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Current El Niño conditions, now established and strengthening toward an OND peak, represent the dominant factor suppressing U.S. tornado activity in August 2026 relative to climatology. NOAA data place the 1991–2020 August average at 81 confirmed tornadoes, with El Niño episodes typically reducing counts through altered jet stream patterns and lower convective available potential energy across the Great Plains and Midwest. Trader consensus at 50% across sub-170 buckets, versus just 4% for 170+, aligns with this signal and recent below-average months like August 2025 (42 reports). Short-term model runs and MJO influences introduce modest uncertainty around the 40–99 range, but no major pattern shifts are anticipated before the month begins.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$534Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Current El Niño conditions, now established and strengthening toward an OND peak, represent the dominant factor suppressing U.S. tornado activity in August 2026 relative to climatology. NOAA data place the 1991–2020 August average at 81 confirmed tornadoes, with El Niño episodes typically reducing counts through altered jet stream patterns and lower convective available potential energy across the Great Plains and Midwest. Trader consensus at 50% across sub-170 buckets, versus just 4% for 170+, aligns with this signal and recent below-average months like August 2025 (42 reports). Short-term model runs and MJO influences introduce modest uncertainty around the 40–99 range, but no major pattern shifts are anticipated before the month begins.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$534Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current El Niño conditions, now established and strengthening toward an OND peak, represent the dominant factor suppressing U.S. tornado activity in August 2026 relative to climatology. NOAA data place the 1991–2020 August average at 81 confirmed tornadoes, with El Niño episodes typically reducing counts through altered jet stream patterns and lower convective available potential energy across the Great Plains and Midwest. Trader consensus at 50% across sub-170 buckets, versus just 4% for 170+, aligns with this signal and recent below-average months like August 2025 (42 reports). Short-term model runs and MJO influences introduce modest uncertainty around the 40–99 range, but no major pattern shifts are anticipated before the month begins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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