The developing El Niño, now under official advisory with rapid warming in the Niño-3.4 region and multi-model consensus for strengthening through 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing July global temperature anomalies toward the 1.10–1.24 °C range. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, amplifying probabilities of above-normal land and ocean temperatures during June–August while adding lagged heat release from prior neutral-to-warm conditions. Trader sentiment clusters tightly across adjacent bins because seasonal model spreads remain wide on exact July magnitude, reflecting uncertainty in El Niño onset timing, atmospheric response, and short-term variability such as cloud cover or regional heat waves. Newer forecast updates and the next NOAA ENSO discussion in July will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJuillet 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
Juillet 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
1,10–1,14ºC 49%
1,20–1,24 ºC 46%
1,15–1,19ºC 41%
1,25–1,29ºC 39%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 août 2026
<1,10ºC
38%
1,10–1,14ºC
49%
1,15–1,19ºC
41%
1,20–1,24 ºC
46%
1,25–1,29ºC
39%
>1,29 ºC
39%
1,10–1,14ºC 49%
1,20–1,24 ºC 46%
1,15–1,19ºC 41%
1,25–1,29ºC 39%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 août 2026
<1,10ºC
$83 Vol.
38%
1,10–1,14ºC
$63 Vol.
49%
1,15–1,19ºC
$47 Vol.
41%
1,20–1,24 ºC
$45 Vol.
46%
1,25–1,29ºC
$84 Vol.
39%
>1,29 ºC
$54 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño, now under official advisory with rapid warming in the Niño-3.4 region and multi-model consensus for strengthening through 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing July global temperature anomalies toward the 1.10–1.24 °C range. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, amplifying probabilities of above-normal land and ocean temperatures during June–August while adding lagged heat release from prior neutral-to-warm conditions. Trader sentiment clusters tightly across adjacent bins because seasonal model spreads remain wide on exact July magnitude, reflecting uncertainty in El Niño onset timing, atmospheric response, and short-term variability such as cloud cover or regional heat waves. Newer forecast updates and the next NOAA ENSO discussion in July will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$377Date de fin
1 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño, now under official advisory with rapid warming in the Niño-3.4 region and multi-model consensus for strengthening through 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing July global temperature anomalies toward the 1.10–1.24 °C range. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, amplifying probabilities of above-normal land and ocean temperatures during June–August while adding lagged heat release from prior neutral-to-warm conditions. Trader sentiment clusters tightly across adjacent bins because seasonal model spreads remain wide on exact July magnitude, reflecting uncertainty in El Niño onset timing, atmospheric response, and short-term variability such as cloud cover or regional heat waves. Newer forecast updates and the next NOAA ENSO discussion in July will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$377Date de fin
1 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The developing El Niño, now under official advisory with rapid warming in the Niño-3.4 region and multi-model consensus for strengthening through 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing July global temperature anomalies toward the 1.10–1.24 °C range. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, amplifying probabilities of above-normal land and ocean temperatures during June–August while adding lagged heat release from prior neutral-to-warm conditions. Trader sentiment clusters tightly across adjacent bins because seasonal model spreads remain wide on exact July magnitude, reflecting uncertainty in El Niño onset timing, atmospheric response, and short-term variability such as cloud cover or regional heat waves. Newer forecast updates and the next NOAA ENSO discussion in July will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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