Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (per NOAA/NHC), magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption (Global Volcanism Program), or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA CNEOS) through mid-May. These events remain historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average fewer than once per decade, M8.5+ quakes occur globally every 5–10 years, and VEI 6+ eruptions are similarly infrequent—bolstering "No" sentiment after four event-free months. Recent NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts predict below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid ENSO transition to neutral or weak El Niño conditions, curbing peak-season (June–November) intensification risks; upcoming NHC advisories and USGS seismic/volcanic monitoring could shift odds if activity surges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCatastrophe naturelle en 2026 ?
Catastrophe naturelle en 2026 ?
Oui
$217,920 Vol.
$217,920 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$217,920 Vol.
$217,920 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (per NOAA/NHC), magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption (Global Volcanism Program), or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA CNEOS) through mid-May. These events remain historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average fewer than once per decade, M8.5+ quakes occur globally every 5–10 years, and VEI 6+ eruptions are similarly infrequent—bolstering "No" sentiment after four event-free months. Recent NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts predict below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid ENSO transition to neutral or weak El Niño conditions, curbing peak-season (June–November) intensification risks; upcoming NHC advisories and USGS seismic/volcanic monitoring could shift odds if activity surges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$217,920Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (per NOAA/NHC), magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption (Global Volcanism Program), or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA CNEOS) through mid-May. These events remain historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average fewer than once per decade, M8.5+ quakes occur globally every 5–10 years, and VEI 6+ eruptions are similarly infrequent—bolstering "No" sentiment after four event-free months. Recent NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts predict below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid ENSO transition to neutral or weak El Niño conditions, curbing peak-season (June–November) intensification risks; upcoming NHC advisories and USGS seismic/volcanic monitoring could shift odds if activity surges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$217,920Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall (per NOAA/NHC), magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS), VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption (Global Volcanism Program), or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA CNEOS) through mid-May. These events remain historically rare—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average fewer than once per decade, M8.5+ quakes occur globally every 5–10 years, and VEI 6+ eruptions are similarly infrequent—bolstering "No" sentiment after four event-free months. Recent NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts predict below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid ENSO transition to neutral or weak El Niño conditions, curbing peak-season (June–November) intensification risks; upcoming NHC advisories and USGS seismic/volcanic monitoring could shift odds if activity surges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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