The stringent resolution criteria for this market—requiring a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10kt+ meteor impact—underpin the 80% market-implied probability for “No.” These thresholds align with statistically rare historical frequencies tracked by NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring, with none occurring through mid-August 2026. Recent seismic activity, including multiple earthquakes below 8.0 and ongoing tropical cyclone activity without U.S. Category 5 landfalls, along with stable volcanic and atmospheric conditions, reinforce the low likelihood of crossing any threshold by year-end. Trader consensus reflects this evidence-based assessment of baseline rates amid continued surveillance through official channels.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCatastrophe naturelle en 2026 ?
Catastrophe naturelle en 2026 ?
Oui
20% chance
$240,641 Vol.
$240,641 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
20% chance
$240,641 Vol.
$240,641 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
The stringent resolution criteria for this market—requiring a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10kt+ meteor impact—underpin the 80% market-implied probability for “No.” These thresholds align with statistically rare historical frequencies tracked by NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring, with none occurring through mid-August 2026. Recent seismic activity, including multiple earthquakes below 8.0 and ongoing tropical cyclone activity without U.S. Category 5 landfalls, along with stable volcanic and atmospheric conditions, reinforce the low likelihood of crossing any threshold by year-end. Trader consensus reflects this evidence-based assessment of baseline rates amid continued surveillance through official channels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$240,641Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
The stringent resolution criteria for this market—requiring a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10kt+ meteor impact—underpin the 80% market-implied probability for “No.” These thresholds align with statistically rare historical frequencies tracked by NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring, with none occurring through mid-August 2026. Recent seismic activity, including multiple earthquakes below 8.0 and ongoing tropical cyclone activity without U.S. Category 5 landfalls, along with stable volcanic and atmospheric conditions, reinforce the low likelihood of crossing any threshold by year-end. Trader consensus reflects this evidence-based assessment of baseline rates amid continued surveillance through official channels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$240,641Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The stringent resolution criteria for this market—requiring a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10kt+ meteor impact—underpin the 80% market-implied probability for “No.” These thresholds align with statistically rare historical frequencies tracked by NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring, with none occurring through mid-August 2026. Recent seismic activity, including multiple earthquakes below 8.0 and ongoing tropical cyclone activity without U.S. Category 5 landfalls, along with stable volcanic and atmospheric conditions, reinforce the low likelihood of crossing any threshold by year-end. Trader consensus reflects this evidence-based assessment of baseline rates amid continued surveillance through official channels.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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